Statistics / Football / Finland. Kakkonen - Lohko C / SJK-juniorit vs Vaajakoski

SJK-juniorit vs Vaajakoski Statistics & Analysis

SJK-juniorit SJK-juniorit
Jun 30, 2026 - 15:30
3 1.38
0 1.22
xG Accuracy: 46%
Vaajakoski Vaajakoski
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 SJK-juniorit SJK-juniorit ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 19:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1489354

Closing Odds 4.55
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result SJK-juniorit win · SJK-juniorit 3–0 Vaajakoski
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 9.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
SJK-juniorit (1X2) 39.0 41.7 -2.8
Draw (1X2) 29.5 19.9 +9.6
Vaajakoski (1X2) 31.5 38.4 -6.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.5% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 19.9%. The difference — about 9.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
SJK-juniorit (1X2) 2.14 2.17 -0.5
Draw (1X2) 4.55 4.55 +0.0
Vaajakoski (1X2) 2.39 2.36 +0.5

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Kakkonen - Lohko C
  • Fixture: SJK-juniorit vs Vaajakoski
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-30 15:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
  • xG (showing): SJK-juniorit 1.38 — Vaajakoski 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 20.5% · Probability edge: +31.3 pts · Est. EV: +169.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Kakkonen - Lohko C Kakkonen - Lohko C — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Huima / Urho 18 11 3 4 36
2 GBK 18 10 2 6 32
3 JBK 18 10 1 7 31
4 VPS II 18 7 4 7 25
5 Jaro 2 18 8 1 9 25
6 Kraft 18 7 2 9 23
7 TP-47 18 6 5 7 23
8 Vaajakoski 18 6 3 9 21
9 JS Hercules 18 6 3 9 21
10 SJK-juniorit 18 5 4 9 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Huima / Urho 18 50 26 +24 36
2 Kraft 18 50 45 +5 23
3 VPS II 18 47 36 +11 25
4 GBK 18 43 33 +10 32
5 JBK 18 37 24 +13 31
6 Vaajakoski 18 34 44 -10 21
7 Jaro 2 18 33 54 -21 25
8 JS Hercules 18 31 42 -11 21
9 TP-47 18 28 35 -7 23
10 SJK-juniorit 18 27 41 -14 19
Kakkonen - Lohko C Finland. Kakkonen - Lohko C Predictions