Vaajakoski vs TP-47 Statistics & Analysis

Vaajakoski

Jun 14, 2026 - 13:00

3 1.34

2 1.26

xG Accuracy: 52%

TP-47

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Vaajakoski Vaajakoski ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1472038

Closing Odds 3.83

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Vaajakoski win · Vaajakoski 3–2 TP-47

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 4.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Vaajakoski (1X2)	37.5	38.0	-0.6
Draw (1X2)	27.7	23.6	+4.1
TP-47 (1X2)	34.8	38.4	-3.5

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 27.7% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 23.6%. The difference — about 4.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Vaajakoski (1X2)	2.38	2.38
Draw (1X2)	3.83	3.83
TP-47 (1X2)	2.36	2.36

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Kakkonen - Lohko C
Fixture: Vaajakoski vs TP-47
Kickoff: 2026-06-14 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 37.5% · Draw 27.7% · Away 34.8%
xG (showing): Vaajakoski 1.34 — TP-47 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 25.0% · Probability edge: +26.8 pts · Est. EV: +107.2%
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Kakkonen - Lohko C — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Huima / Urho	18	11	3	4	36
2	GBK	18	10	2	6	32
3	JBK	18	10	1	7	31
4	VPS II	18	7	4	7	25
5	Jaro 2	18	8	1	9	25
6	Kraft	18	7	2	9	23
7	TP-47	18	6	5	7	23
8	Vaajakoski	18	6	3	9	21
9	JS Hercules	18	6	3	9	21
10	SJK-juniorit	18	5	4	9	19

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Huima / Urho	18	50	26	+24	36
2	Kraft	18	50	45	+5	23
3	VPS II	18	47	36	+11	25
4	GBK	18	43	33	+10	32
5	JBK	18	37	24	+13	31
6	Vaajakoski	18	34	44	-10	21
7	Jaro 2	18	33	54	-21	25
8	JS Hercules	18	31	42	-11	21
9	TP-47	18	28	35	-7	23
10	SJK-juniorit	18	27	41	-14	19