HPS vs Kiffen Statistics & Analysis

HPS

Jun 12, 2026 - 16:00

1 1.30

2 1.30

xG Accuracy: 76%

Kiffen

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 HPS Kiffen ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 01, 2026 · 04:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2692675

Closing Odds 2.16

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Kiffen win · HPS 1–2 Kiffen

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices HPS (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 13.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
HPS (1X2)	35.2	31.0	+4.2
Draw (1X2)	29.6	27.1	+2.5
Kiffen (1X2)	35.2	41.9	-6.7
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	61.3	-13.1
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	38.7	+13.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 38.7%. The difference — about 13.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
HPS (1X2)	2.92	2.92
Draw (1X2)	3.34	3.34
Kiffen (1X2)	2.16	2.16
Over 2.5 goals	1.51	1.51
Under 2.5 goals	2.39	2.39

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Kakkonen - Lohko A
Fixture: HPS vs Kiffen
Kickoff: 2026-06-12 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
xG (showing): HPS 1.3 — Kiffen 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 39.2% · Probability edge: +12.6 pts · Est. EV: +24.3%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 22, 2026 (UTC)

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Kakkonen - Lohko A — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Kiffen	18	12	3	3	39
2	PEPO	18	11	4	3	37
3	Atlantis	18	10	2	6	32
4	HIFK Elsinki	18	7	6	5	27
5	HPS	18	7	4	7	25
6	PPJ	18	5	8	5	23
7	Reipas	18	7	2	9	23
8	PuiU Helsinki	18	4	4	10	16
9	MyPa	18	4	3	11	15
10	Union Plaani	18	4	2	12	14

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Atlantis	18	62	44	+18	32
2	Kiffen	18	41	24	+17	39
3	HIFK Elsinki	18	39	33	+6	27
4	HPS	18	39	41	-2	25
5	PEPO	18	36	23	+13	37
6	Reipas	18	35	35	0	23
7	PPJ	18	33	31	+2	23
8	PuiU Helsinki	18	26	38	-12	16
9	MyPa	18	20	39	-19	15
10	Union Plaani	18	19	42	-23	14