Musa vs P-Iirot Statistics & Analysis

Musa

Jun 27, 2026 - 13:00

2 1.22

2 1.38

xG Accuracy: 68%

P-Iirot

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 P-Iirot Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 09:25 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1693177

Closing Odds 1.58

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Musa 2–2 P-Iirot

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 3.2 percentage points on P-Iirot (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 11.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Musa (1X2)	31.5	23.6	+7.9
Draw (1X2)	29.5	18.5	+11.1
P-Iirot (1X2)	39.0	57.9	-19.0

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.5% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 18.5%. The difference — about 11.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
Musa (1X2)	3.55	3.88	-1.9
Draw (1X2)	4.55	4.95	-1.4
P-Iirot (1X2)	1.65	1.58	+3.2

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Kakkonen - Lohko B
Fixture: Musa vs P-Iirot
Kickoff: 2026-06-27 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.0%
xG (showing): Musa 1.22 — P-Iirot 1.38 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Kakkonen - Lohko B — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Honka	18	13	4	1	43
2	ÅIFK	18	12	3	3	39
3	EPS	18	10	2	6	32
4	HJS Akatemia	18	9	4	5	31
5	Ilves II	18	8	6	4	30
6	P-Iirot	18	8	3	7	27
7	GrIFK	18	7	3	8	24
8	EBK	18	4	3	11	15
9	Musa	18	3	3	12	12
10	NJS	18	0	1	17	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Honka	18	56	17	+39	43
2	Ilves II	18	51	30	+21	30
3	EPS	18	39	26	+13	32
4	ÅIFK	18	38	18	+20	39
5	HJS Akatemia	18	30	24	+6	31
6	P-Iirot	18	30	25	+5	27
7	EBK	18	27	43	-16	15
8	GrIFK	18	23	31	-8	24
9	Musa	18	19	55	-36	12
10	NJS	18	10	54	-44	1