Statistics / Football / Finland. Kakkonen - Lohko B / P-Iirot vs Honka

P-Iirot vs Honka Statistics & Analysis

P-Iirot P-Iirot
Jun 13, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.35
5 1.25
xG Accuracy: 32%
Honka Honka
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 P-Iirot Honka ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-5 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 30, 2026 · 22:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2540142

Closing Odds 1.43
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Honka win · P-Iirot 1–5 Honka
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices P-Iirot (1X2), Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on P-Iirot (1X2) by about 17.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
P-Iirot (1X2) 37.6 20.2 +17.4
Draw (1X2) 29.6 16.7 +12.9
Honka (1X2) 32.9 63.2 -30.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 37.6% on P-Iirot (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 20.2%. The difference — about 17.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
P-Iirot (1X2) 4.48 4.48 0.0
Draw (1X2) 5.42 5.42 0.0
Honka (1X2) 1.43 1.43 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours P-Iirot; market prices Honka instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: P-Iirot 1.35 xG vs Honka 1.25 → P-Iirot 37.5%
  • Market: Honka ~20.2% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Kakkonen - Lohko B Kakkonen - Lohko B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Honka 18 13 4 1 43
2 ÅIFK 18 12 3 3 39
3 EPS 18 10 2 6 32
4 HJS Akatemia 18 9 4 5 31
5 Ilves II 18 8 6 4 30
6 P-Iirot 18 8 3 7 27
7 GrIFK 18 7 3 8 24
8 EBK 18 4 3 11 15
9 Musa 18 3 3 12 12
10 NJS 18 0 1 17 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Honka 18 56 17 +39 43
2 Ilves II 18 51 30 +21 30
3 EPS 18 39 26 +13 32
4 ÅIFK 18 38 18 +20 39
5 HJS Akatemia 18 30 24 +6 31
6 P-Iirot 18 30 25 +5 27
7 EBK 18 27 43 -16 15
8 GrIFK 18 23 31 -8 24
9 Musa 18 19 55 -36 12
10 NJS 18 10 54 -44 1
Kakkonen - Lohko B Finland. Kakkonen - Lohko B Predictions