Statistics / Football / Australia. Victoria Premier League 2 / Altona City vs Kingston City

Altona City vs Kingston City Statistics & Analysis

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Altona City
Aug 15, 2026 - 08:15
1 1.32
4 1.28
xG Accuracy: 43%
Kingston City Kingston City
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Altona City Kingston City ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 01:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3337276

Closing Odds 2.0
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Kingston City win · Altona City 1–4 Kingston City
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Kingston City (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 9.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Altona City (1X2) 36.1 44.5 -8.4
Draw (1X2) 29.7 25.2 +4.5
Kingston City (1X2) 34.2 30.4 +3.9
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 58.1 -9.9
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 41.9 +9.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 41.9%. The difference — about 9.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Altona City (1X2) 2.0 2.0 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.53 3.53 0.0
Kingston City (1X2) 2.93 2.93 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.57 1.57 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.18 2.18 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Victoria Premier League 2
  • Fixture: Altona City vs Kingston City
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 08:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Altona City 1.32 — Kingston City 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 41.9% · Probability edge: +9.9 pts · Est. EV: +16.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Victoria Premier League 2 Victoria Premier League 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Malvern 26 18 2 6 56
2 Goulburn Valley Suns 26 17 4 5 55
3 Bayside Argonauts 26 15 5 6 50
4 Essendon Royals SC 26 15 3 8 48
5 Keilor Park 26 14 2 10 44
6 Box Hill 26 11 7 8 40
7 Whittlesea United 26 9 11 6 38
8 Springvale 26 9 5 12 32
9 Eastern Lions 26 7 9 10 30
10 Kingston City 26 9 3 14 30
11 Nunawading 26 8 5 13 29
12 Werribee City 26 6 6 14 24
13 Altona City 26 3 8 15 17
14 Moreland City 26 2 8 16 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Malvern 26 66 33 +33 56
2 Essendon Royals SC 26 63 42 +21 48
3 Goulburn Valley Suns 26 59 35 +24 55
4 Whittlesea United 26 49 31 +18 38
5 Bayside Argonauts 26 47 32 +15 50
6 Eastern Lions 26 43 43 0 30
7 Keilor Park 26 39 37 +2 44
8 Box Hill 26 37 32 +5 40
9 Werribee City 26 37 50 -13 24
10 Kingston City 26 37 55 -18 30
11 Moreland City 26 34 73 -39 14
12 Springvale 26 32 46 -14 32
13 Nunawading 26 29 44 -15 29
14 Altona City 26 25 44 -19 17