José Bonifácio vs Assisense Statistics & Analysis

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Validation Report

AI match briefing

Model Performance

AI Match Summary

Historical Recommendation

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Last Updated

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Paulista Série B — Standings

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José Bonifácio

Jun 14, 2026 - 18:00

1 1.33

0 1.27

xG Accuracy: 64%

Assisense

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Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 José Bonifácio José Bonifácio ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 31, 2026 · 18:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2643004

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result José Bonifácio win · José Bonifácio 1–0 Assisense

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Paulista Série B
Fixture: José Bonifácio vs Assisense
Kickoff: 2026-06-14 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
xG (showing): José Bonifácio 1.33 — Assisense 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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