Statistics / Football / Brazil. Paulista Série B / Grêmio Catanduvense vs Matonense

Grêmio Catanduvense vs Matonense Statistics & Analysis

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Grêmio Catanduvense
Jun 14, 2026 - 13:00
0 1.32
13 1.28
xG Accuracy: 3%
Matonense Matonense
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (13 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Grêmio Catanduvense Matonense ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-13 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 20:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3074399

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Matonense win · Grêmio Catanduvense 0–13 Matonense
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Paulista Série B
  • Fixture: Grêmio Catanduvense vs Matonense
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-14 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Grêmio Catanduvense 1.32 — Matonense 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Paulista Série B Paulista Série B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 José Bonifácio 8 5 3 0 18
2 America SP 8 4 3 1 15
3 Assisense 8 3 4 1 13
4 Tupa 8 3 1 4 10
5 Riopretano 8 1 3 4 6
6 Santa Fé FC 8 1 0 7 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 José Bonifácio 8 15 5 +10 18
2 Assisense 8 13 10 +3 13
3 Tupa 8 12 14 -2 10
4 America SP 8 9 5 +4 15
5 Santa Fé FC 8 7 16 -9 3
6 Riopretano 8 5 11 -6 6