Barcelona EC vs Manthiqueira Statistics & Analysis

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Validation Report

AI match briefing

Model Performance

AI Match Summary

Historical Recommendation

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Last Updated

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Paulista Série B — Standings

Barcelona EC

Jun 14, 2026 - 18:00

1 1.19

5 1.41

xG Accuracy: 35%

Manthiqueira

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Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Manthiqueira Manthiqueira ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 1-5 ✖ Incorrect

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 18:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1911571

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Manthiqueira win · Barcelona EC 1–5 Manthiqueira

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Paulista Série B
Fixture: Barcelona EC vs Manthiqueira
Kickoff: 2026-06-14 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 30.1% · Draw 29.4% · Away 40.5%
xG (showing): Barcelona EC 1.19 — Manthiqueira 1.41 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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José Bonifácio

America SP

Riopretano

Santa Fé FC