Statistics / Football / Denmark. 3. Division / Lyseng vs Odder

Lyseng vs Odder Statistics & Analysis

Lyseng Lyseng
Jun 13, 2026 - 12:00
3 1.51
2 1.47
xG Accuracy: 57%
Odder Odder
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Lyseng Lyseng ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 07:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1982673

Closing Odds 2.19
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Lyseng win · Lyseng 3–2 Odder
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Lyseng (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 9.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Lyseng (1X2) 37.2 35.7 +1.5
Draw (1X2) 27.3 24.0 +3.4
Odder (1X2) 35.5 40.4 -4.9
Over 2.5 goals 57.2 66.8 -9.6
Under 2.5 goals 42.8 33.2 +9.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 42.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 33.2%. The difference — about 9.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Lyseng (1X2) 2.48 2.48 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.69 3.69 0.0
Odder (1X2) 2.19 2.19 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.36 1.36 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.73 2.73 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 3. Division
  • Fixture: Lyseng vs Odder
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-13 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.2% · Draw 27.3% · Away 35.5%
  • xG (showing): Lyseng 1.51 — Odder 1.47 (total xG ≈ 2.98)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 42.8% · Implied: 34.1% · Probability edge: +8.7 pts · Est. EV: +23.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 17, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
3. Division 3. Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Nykobing FC 22 17 4 1 55
2 FA 2000 22 13 3 6 42
3 Næsby 22 11 3 8 36
4 Holbæk B&I 22 9 5 8 32
5 Brønshøj 22 9 5 8 32
6 Vanløse 22 9 4 9 31
7 Hørsholm-Usserød 22 8 5 9 29
8 Frem 22 8 4 10 28
9 Vejgaard B 22 7 5 10 26
10 Sundby 22 7 3 12 24
11 Odder 22 6 3 13 21
12 Lyseng 22 5 2 15 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Nykobing FC 22 53 17 +36 55
2 Holbæk B&I 22 43 33 +10 32
3 Næsby 22 42 39 +3 36
4 Hørsholm-Usserød 22 38 38 0 29
5 Brønshøj 22 34 38 -4 32
6 FA 2000 22 33 23 +10 42
7 Sundby 22 32 39 -7 24
8 Vanløse 22 30 27 +3 31
9 Vejgaard B 22 30 46 -16 26
10 Odder 22 24 33 -9 21
11 Frem 22 22 24 -2 28
12 Lyseng 22 14 38 -24 17
3. Division Denmark. 3. Division Predictions