Holbæk B&I vs Vejgaard B Statistics & Analysis

Holbæk B&I

Jun 13, 2026 - 12:00

1 1.65

0 1.33

xG Accuracy: 58%

Vejgaard B

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Holbæk B&I Holbæk B&I ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 04:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3024888

Closing Odds 1.16

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Holbæk B&I win · Holbæk B&I 1–0 Vejgaard B

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Vejgaard B (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Vejgaard B (1X2) by about 20.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Holbæk B&I (1X2)	43.5	78.0	-34.5
Draw (1X2)	27.0	13.1	+13.8
Vejgaard B (1X2)	29.5	8.9	+20.6

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.5% on Vejgaard B (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 8.9%. The difference — about 20.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Holbæk B&I (1X2)	1.16	1.16
Draw (1X2)	6.89	6.89
Vejgaard B (1X2)	10.15	10.15

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Holbæk B&I; market prices Holbæk B&I instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: Holbæk B&I 1.65 xG vs Vejgaard B 1.33 → Holbæk B&I 43.5%
Market: Holbæk B&I ~78.0% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

3. Division — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Nykobing FC	22	17	4	1	55
2	FA 2000	22	13	3	6	42
3	Næsby	22	11	3	8	36
4	Holbæk B&I	22	9	5	8	32
5	Brønshøj	22	9	5	8	32
6	Vanløse	22	9	4	9	31
7	Hørsholm-Usserød	22	8	5	9	29
8	Frem	22	8	4	10	28
9	Vejgaard B	22	7	5	10	26
10	Sundby	22	7	3	12	24
11	Odder	22	6	3	13	21
12	Lyseng	22	5	2	15	17

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Nykobing FC	22	53	17	+36	55
2	Holbæk B&I	22	43	33	+10	32
3	Næsby	22	42	39	+3	36
4	Hørsholm-Usserød	22	38	38	0	29
5	Brønshøj	22	34	38	-4	32
6	FA 2000	22	33	23	+10	42
7	Sundby	22	32	39	-7	24
8	Vanløse	22	30	27	+3	31
9	Vejgaard B	22	30	46	-16	26
10	Odder	22	24	33	-9	21
11	Frem	22	22	24	-2	28
12	Lyseng	22	14	38	-24	17