Statistics / Football / Brazil. Cearense U20 / Caucaia U20 vs Fortaleza U20

Caucaia U20 vs Fortaleza U20 Statistics & Analysis

Caucaia U20 Caucaia U20
Jul 15, 2026 - 18:00
1 1.09
2 1.51
xG Accuracy: 85%
Fortaleza U20 Fortaleza U20
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Fortaleza U20 Fortaleza U20 ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 18:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1482713

Closing Odds 1.38
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Fortaleza U20 win · Caucaia U20 1–2 Fortaleza U20
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 3.84 percentage points on Fortaleza U20 (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Caucaia U20 (1X2) by about 7.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Caucaia U20 (1X2) 21.1 13.8 +7.3
Draw (1X2) 26.5 21.2 +5.3
Fortaleza U20 (1X2) 52.4 65.0 -12.6
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 51.1 -2.9
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 48.9 +2.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 21.1% on Caucaia U20 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 13.8%. The difference — about 7.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Caucaia U20 (1X2) 7.53 6.51 +2.0
Draw (1X2) 4.59 4.23 +1.9
Fortaleza U20 (1X2) 1.29 1.38 -3.8
Over 2.5 goals 1.71 1.83 -2.7
Under 2.5 goals 1.99 1.91 +2.7

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Cearense U20
  • Fixture: Caucaia U20 vs Fortaleza U20
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-15 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 21.1% · Draw 26.5% · Away 52.4%
  • xG (showing): Caucaia U20 1.09 — Fortaleza U20 1.51 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 47.1% · Probability edge: +4.7 pts · Est. EV: +14.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.3% · No 46.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Cearense U20 Cearense U20 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vila Real FC U20 5 2 3 0 9
2 Ceará U20 3 2 1 0 7
3 Pague Menos U20 4 1 3 0 6
4 Caucaia U20 6 1 2 3 5
5 Horizonte U20 4 1 1 2 4
6 Anjos do Céu U20 3 1 0 2 3
7 Tiangua CE U20 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Vila Real FC U20 5 11 3 +8 9
2 Pague Menos U20 4 10 2 +8 6
3 Ceará U20 3 5 3 +2 7
4 Horizonte U20 4 5 8 -3 4
5 Caucaia U20 6 3 5 -2 5
6 Anjos do Céu U20 3 3 8 -5 3
7 Tiangua CE U20 4 1 5 -4 0
Cearense U20 Brazil. Cearense U20 Predictions