Statistics / Football / Brazil. Catarinense U20 / Avaí U20 vs Chapecoense U20

Avaí U20 vs Chapecoense U20 Statistics & Analysis

Avaí U20 Avaí U20
Jul 16, 2026 - 14:00
3 1.22
1 1.38
xG Accuracy: 55%
Chapecoense U20 Chapecoense U20
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Chapecoense U20 Avaí U20 ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 01, 2026 · 18:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2782937

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Avaí U20 win · Avaí U20 3–1 Chapecoense U20
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Catarinense U20
  • Fixture: Avaí U20 vs Chapecoense U20
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-16 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.0%
  • xG (showing): Avaí U20 1.22 — Chapecoense U20 1.38 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Catarinense U20 Catarinense U20 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Avaí U20 9 6 3 0 21
2 Barra SC U20 8 6 2 0 20
3 Criciuma U20 9 4 4 1 16
4 Chapecoense U20 9 4 2 3 14
5 Figueirense U20 9 3 4 2 13
6 Nação U20 8 2 3 4 9
7 Concórdia U20 8 2 3 3 9
8 Joinville U20 9 2 2 5 8
9 Carlos Renaux U20 10 2 2 6 8
10 Brusque U20 9 1 1 7 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Avaí U20 9 21 6 +15 21
2 Barra SC U20 8 21 9 +12 20
3 Criciuma U20 9 17 5 +12 16
4 Nação U20 8 17 17 0 9
5 Figueirense U20 9 15 10 +5 13
6 Chapecoense U20 9 14 15 -1 14
7 Joinville U20 9 10 20 -10 8
8 Brusque U20 9 10 25 -15 4
9 Concórdia U20 8 7 12 -5 9
10 Carlos Renaux U20 10 5 17 -12 8