VIFK W vs Ilves Statistics & Analysis

VIFK W

Jun 14, 2026 - 11:00

0 1.16

3 1.44

xG Accuracy: 47%

Ilves

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Ilves Ilves ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 30, 2026 · 17:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2526923

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Ilves win · VIFK W 0–3 Ilves

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Kansallinen Liiga
Fixture: VIFK W vs Ilves
Kickoff: 2026-06-14 11:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 28.8% · Draw 29.3% · Away 41.9%
xG (showing): VIFK W 1.16 — Ilves 1.44 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Kansallinen Liiga — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	HJK	14	13	0	1	39
2	Åland United	14	9	1	4	28
3	KuPS W	14	9	1	4	28
4	HPS W	14	7	3	4	24
5	Ilves	14	7	1	6	22
6	IF Gnistan	14	4	1	9	13
7	PK-35 Vantaa W	14	2	1	11	7
8	VIFK W	14	0	2	12	2

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Åland United	14	41	19	+22	28
2	HJK	14	38	9	+29	39
3	KuPS W	14	31	21	+10	28
4	Ilves	14	27	26	+1	22
5	IF Gnistan	14	21	32	-11	13
6	HPS W	14	19	15	+4	24
7	PK-35 Vantaa W	14	13	36	-23	7
8	VIFK W	14	8	40	-32	2