Statistics / Football / World. World Cup / Congo DR vs Uzbekistan

Congo DR vs Uzbekistan Statistics & Analysis

Congo DR Congo DR
Jun 27, 2026 - 23:30
3 1.23
1 1.47
xG Accuracy: 54%
Uzbekistan Uzbekistan
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Uzbekistan Congo DR ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 2-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 08, 2026 · 02:27 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3236697

Closing Odds 1.75
AI Fair Odds 2.43
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Congo DR win · Congo DR 3–1 Uzbekistan
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 41.2%
  • Historical Bucket: 40–45% — Actual 0.0% (n=3)

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Uzbekistan (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Uzbekistan (1X2) by about 22.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Congo DR (1X2) 30.1 55.8 -25.8
Draw (1X2) 28.8 25.0 +3.8
Uzbekistan (1X2) 41.2 19.2 +22.0
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 43.3 +7.3
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 56.7 -7.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.2% on Uzbekistan (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 19.2%. The difference — about 22.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Congo DR (1X2) 1.75 1.75 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.91 3.91 0.0
Uzbekistan (1X2) 5.1 5.1 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.23 2.23 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.7 1.7 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: World Cup
  • Fixture: Congo DR vs Uzbekistan
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-27 23:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.0% · Draw 28.8% · Away 41.2%
  • xG (showing): Congo DR 1.228826990591334 — Uzbekistan 1.4711730094086664 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 56.1% · Implied: 45.0% · Probability edge: +11.1 pts · Est. EV: +23.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 56.1% · No 43.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.1%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
World Cup World Cup — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Mexico 3 3 0 0 9
2 South Africa 3 1 1 1 4
3 South Korea 3 1 0 2 3
4 Czech Republic 3 0 1 2 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Mexico 3 6 0 +6 9
2 South Africa 3 2 3 -1 4
3 South Korea 3 2 3 -1 3
4 Czech Republic 3 2 6 -4 1
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Mexico 3 6.6 3.8 +2.8 9
2 South Korea 3 4.1 2.5 +1.6 3
3 South Africa 3 2.7 4.7 -2.0 4
4 Czech Republic 3 2.4 5.4 -3.0 1