Statistics / Football / World. World Cup / Switzerland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina

Switzerland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina Statistics & Analysis

Switzerland Switzerland
Jun 18, 2026 - 19:00
4 1.83
1 0.87
xG Accuracy: 53%
Bosnia & Herzegovina Bosnia & Herzegovina
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Switzerland Switzerland ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 2-0, 1-1, 2-1, 3-0 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 31, 2026 · 00:30 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2549177

Closing Odds 1.59
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Switzerland win · Switzerland 4–1 Bosnia & Herzegovina
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Bosnia & Herzegovina (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 2.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Switzerland (1X2) 58.5 61.7 -3.2
Draw (1X2) 25.3 23.4 +2.0
Bosnia & Herzegovina (1X2) 16.2 15.0 +1.2
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 49.1 +1.5
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 50.9 -1.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 25.3% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 23.4%. The difference — about 2.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Switzerland (1X2) 1.59 1.59 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.2 4.2 0.0
Bosnia & Herzegovina (1X2) 6.55 6.55 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.99 1.99 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.92 1.92 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: World Cup
  • Fixture: Switzerland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-18 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 58.5% · Draw 25.3% · Away 16.2%
  • xG (showing): Switzerland 1.8264121200408951 — Bosnia & Herzegovina 0.873587879959105 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.2%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 49.4% · Over 2.5 50.6%); BTTS Yes (Yes 50.3% · No 49.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 50.3% · No 49.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (12.3%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
World Cup World Cup — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Mexico 3 3 0 0 9
2 South Africa 3 1 1 1 4
3 South Korea 3 1 0 2 3
4 Czech Republic 3 0 1 2 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Mexico 3 6 0 +6 9
2 South Africa 3 2 3 -1 4
3 South Korea 3 2 3 -1 3
4 Czech Republic 3 2 6 -4 1
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Mexico 3 6.6 3.8 +2.8 9
2 South Korea 3 4.1 2.5 +1.6 3
3 South Africa 3 2.7 4.7 -2.0 4
4 Czech Republic 3 2.4 5.4 -3.0 1