Statistics / Football / Malawi. Super League / Nyasa Big Bullets vs Chitipa United

Nyasa Big Bullets vs Chitipa United Statistics & Analysis

Nyasa Big Bullets Nyasa Big Bullets
Aug 09, 2026 - 12:30
2 1.52
0 1.08
xG Accuracy: 65%
Chitipa United Chitipa United
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Nyasa Big Bullets Nyasa Big Bullets ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 2-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 01:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3339837

Closing Odds 1.22
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Nyasa Big Bullets win · Nyasa Big Bullets 2–0 Chitipa United
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 4.57 percentage points on Over 2.5 goals between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Chitipa United (1X2) by about 17.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Nyasa Big Bullets (1X2) 45.8 74.1 -28.3
Draw (1X2) 28.8 17.9 +10.9
Chitipa United (1X2) 25.4 8.0 +17.4
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 49.7 -1.5
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 50.3 +1.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 25.4% on Chitipa United (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 8.0%. The difference — about 17.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Nyasa Big Bullets (1X2) 1.23 1.22 +1.7
Draw (1X2) 4.6 5.04 -1.4
Chitipa United (1X2) 10.82 11.36 -0.3
Over 2.5 goals 2.04 1.88 +4.6
Under 2.5 goals 1.68 1.86 -4.6

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Super League
  • Fixture: Nyasa Big Bullets vs Chitipa United
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-09 12:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.8% · Draw 28.8% · Away 25.4%
  • xG (showing): Nyasa Big Bullets 1.52 — Chitipa United 1.08 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.2% · No 46.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.2% · No 46.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Super League Super League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Blue Eagles 15 10 1 4 31
2 Nyasa Big Bullets 15 8 6 1 30
3 Be Forward Wanderers 15 8 5 2 29
4 Silver Strikers 15 8 5 2 29
5 Masters FC 15 6 4 5 22
6 Moyale Barracks 15 5 6 4 21
7 Chitipa United 15 6 3 6 21
8 Mitundu Baptist 15 5 5 5 20
9 Red Lions 15 5 5 5 20
10 CIVO United 15 6 2 7 20
11 Ekhaya 15 4 6 5 18
12 Dedza Dynamos 15 3 6 6 15
13 Karonga United 15 3 5 7 14
14 MAFCO 15 3 4 8 13
15 Kamuzu Barracks 15 3 3 9 12
16 Creck 15 2 4 9 10
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Be Forward Wanderers 15 27 11 +16 29
2 Blue Eagles 15 24 16 +8 31
3 Silver Strikers 15 23 10 +13 29
4 Nyasa Big Bullets 15 20 7 +13 30
5 Masters FC 15 17 16 +1 22
6 Moyale Barracks 15 16 17 -1 21
7 Ekhaya 15 15 14 +1 18
8 Kamuzu Barracks 15 15 22 -7 12
9 Karonga United 15 14 23 -9 14
10 Mitundu Baptist 15 12 13 -1 20
11 Red Lions 15 12 13 -1 20
12 MAFCO 15 12 17 -5 13
13 Chitipa United 15 11 16 -5 21
14 Creck 15 11 20 -9 10
15 CIVO United 15 10 14 -4 20
16 Dedza Dynamos 15 9 19 -10 15