Statistics / Football / Brazil. Serie D / Ipatinga vs Operario Ferroviario

Ipatinga vs Operario Ferroviario Statistics & Analysis

Ipatinga Ipatinga
Jun 14, 2026 - 19:00
2 1.28
1 1.32
xG Accuracy: 75%
Operario Ferroviario Operario Ferroviario
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Ipatinga Ipatinga ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 08:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1691412

Closing Odds 1.65
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Ipatinga win · Ipatinga 2–1 Operario Ferroviario
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Operario Ferroviario (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Operario Ferroviario (1X2) by about 12.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Ipatinga (1X2) 40.0 53.9 -13.9
Draw (1X2) 29.7 27.9 +1.8
Operario Ferroviario (1X2) 30.2 18.2 +12.1
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 41.8 +6.4
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 58.2 -6.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 30.2% on Operario Ferroviario (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 18.2%. The difference — about 12.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Ipatinga (1X2) 1.65 1.65 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.19 3.19 0.0
Operario Ferroviario (1X2) 4.9 4.9 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.21 2.21 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.59 1.59 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Serie D
  • Fixture: Ipatinga vs Operario Ferroviario
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-14 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 30.2%
  • xG (showing): Ipatinga 1.28 — Operario Ferroviario 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 43.7% · Probability edge: +10.8 pts · Est. EV: +19.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie D Serie D — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Manauara 10 6 4 0 22
2 Nacional AM 10 6 2 2 20
3 Sao Raimundo 10 3 4 3 13
4 Monte Roraima 10 2 4 4 10
5 Manaus FC 10 2 4 4 10
6 GAS 10 1 2 7 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Nacional AM 10 15 9 +6 20
2 Manauara 10 13 5 +8 22
3 Monte Roraima 10 11 14 -3 10
4 Sao Raimundo 10 10 7 +3 13
5 Manaus FC 10 8 13 -5 10
6 GAS 10 8 17 -9 5