Statistics / Football / Australia. Capital Territory NPL / Canberra Olympic vs Brindabella

Canberra Olympic vs Brindabella Statistics & Analysis

Canberra Olympic Canberra Olympic
Aug 22, 2026 - 04:30
5 1.23
4 1.37
xG Accuracy: 17%
Brindabella Brindabella
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (9 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Brindabella Canberra Olympic ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 5-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 00:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4209523

Closing Odds 1.17
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Canberra Olympic win · Canberra Olympic 5–4 Brindabella
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Brindabella (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Brindabella (1X2) by about 26.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Canberra Olympic (1X2) 31.9 75.6 -43.7
Draw (1X2) 29.6 12.6 +17.0
Brindabella (1X2) 38.5 11.8 +26.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 38.5% on Brindabella (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 11.8%. The difference — about 26.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Canberra Olympic (1X2) 1.17 1.17 0.0
Draw (1X2) 7.05 7.05 0.0
Brindabella (1X2) 7.48 7.48 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Brindabella; market prices Canberra Olympic instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Canberra Olympic 1.23 xG vs Brindabella 1.37 → Brindabella 38.5%
  • Market: Canberra Olympic ~11.8% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Capital Territory NPL Capital Territory NPL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Canberra FC 20 17 1 2 52
2 Monaro Panthers 20 15 1 4 46
3 Cooma Tigers FC 20 14 2 4 44
4 Tuggeranong United 20 14 0 6 42
5 Queanbeyan City 20 12 2 6 38
6 Canberra Juventus 20 11 0 9 33
7 Canberra Olympic 20 7 2 11 23
8 O'Connor Knights 20 6 2 12 20
9 Belconnen United 20 2 3 15 9
10 Brindabella 20 3 0 17 9
11 Canberra White Eagles 20 2 1 17 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Monaro Panthers 20 71 26 +45 46
2 Canberra FC 20 64 24 +40 52
3 Cooma Tigers FC 20 59 24 +35 44
4 Tuggeranong United 20 49 39 +10 42
5 Canberra Olympic 20 45 55 -10 23
6 Queanbeyan City 20 42 28 +14 38
7 Canberra Juventus 20 39 39 0 33
8 Belconnen United 20 25 50 -25 9
9 O'Connor Knights 20 24 39 -15 20
10 Canberra White Eagles 20 17 60 -43 7
11 Brindabella 20 15 66 -51 9