Statistics / Football / Australia. Capital Territory NPL / Canberra Olympic vs Tuggeranong United

Canberra Olympic vs Tuggeranong United Statistics & Analysis

Canberra Olympic Canberra Olympic
Aug 01, 2026 - 04:30
1 1.26
2 1.34
xG Accuracy: 78%
Tuggeranong United Tuggeranong United
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Tuggeranong United Tuggeranong United ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 01:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1782302

Closing Odds 3.81
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Tuggeranong United win · Canberra Olympic 1–2 Tuggeranong United
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 4.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Canberra Olympic (1X2) 35.1 39.3 -4.2
Draw (1X2) 27.7 23.3 +4.4
Tuggeranong United (1X2) 37.2 37.3 -0.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 27.7% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 23.3%. The difference — about 4.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Canberra Olympic (1X2) 2.26 2.26 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.81 3.81 0.0
Tuggeranong United (1X2) 2.38 2.38 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Capital Territory NPL
  • Fixture: Canberra Olympic vs Tuggeranong United
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-01 04:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.1% · Draw 27.7% · Away 37.2%
  • xG (showing): Canberra Olympic 1.26 — Tuggeranong United 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 27.4% · Probability edge: +24.5 pts · Est. EV: +81.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Capital Territory NPL Capital Territory NPL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Canberra FC 20 17 1 2 52
2 Monaro Panthers 20 15 1 4 46
3 Cooma Tigers FC 20 14 2 4 44
4 Tuggeranong United 20 14 0 6 42
5 Queanbeyan City 20 12 2 6 38
6 Canberra Juventus 20 11 0 9 33
7 Canberra Olympic 20 7 2 11 23
8 O'Connor Knights 20 6 2 12 20
9 Belconnen United 20 2 3 15 9
10 Brindabella 20 3 0 17 9
11 Canberra White Eagles 20 2 1 17 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Monaro Panthers 20 71 26 +45 46
2 Canberra FC 20 64 24 +40 52
3 Cooma Tigers FC 20 59 24 +35 44
4 Tuggeranong United 20 49 39 +10 42
5 Canberra Olympic 20 45 55 -10 23
6 Queanbeyan City 20 42 28 +14 38
7 Canberra Juventus 20 39 39 0 33
8 Belconnen United 20 25 50 -25 9
9 O'Connor Knights 20 24 39 -15 20
10 Canberra White Eagles 20 17 60 -43 7
11 Brindabella 20 15 66 -51 9