Statistics / Football / Australia. Capital Territory NPL / Queanbeyan City vs Monaro Panthers

Queanbeyan City vs Monaro Panthers Statistics & Analysis

Queanbeyan City Queanbeyan City
Jun 13, 2026 - 05:00
2 1.19
5 1.41
xG Accuracy: 30%
Monaro Panthers Monaro Panthers
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Monaro Panthers Monaro Panthers ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 2-5 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 17:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1742510

Closing Odds 1.7
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Monaro Panthers win · Queanbeyan City 2–5 Monaro Panthers
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Queanbeyan City (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 18.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Queanbeyan City (1X2) 28.8 24.9 +3.9
Draw (1X2) 27.1 22.2 +4.9
Monaro Panthers (1X2) 44.1 52.8 -8.8
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 67.1 -18.9
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 32.9 +18.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 32.9%. The difference — about 18.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Queanbeyan City (1X2) 3.6 3.6 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.04 4.04 0.0
Monaro Panthers (1X2) 1.7 1.7 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.36 1.36 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.77 2.77 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Capital Territory NPL
  • Fixture: Queanbeyan City vs Monaro Panthers
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-13 05:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 28.8% · Draw 27.1% · Away 44.1%
  • xG (showing): Queanbeyan City 1.19 — Monaro Panthers 1.41 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 31.9% · Probability edge: +19.9 pts · Est. EV: +55.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Capital Territory NPL Capital Territory NPL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Canberra FC 20 17 1 2 52
2 Monaro Panthers 20 15 1 4 46
3 Cooma Tigers FC 20 14 2 4 44
4 Tuggeranong United 20 14 0 6 42
5 Queanbeyan City 20 12 2 6 38
6 Canberra Juventus 20 11 0 9 33
7 Canberra Olympic 20 7 2 11 23
8 O'Connor Knights 20 6 2 12 20
9 Belconnen United 20 2 3 15 9
10 Brindabella 20 3 0 17 9
11 Canberra White Eagles 20 2 1 17 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Monaro Panthers 20 71 26 +45 46
2 Canberra FC 20 64 24 +40 52
3 Cooma Tigers FC 20 59 24 +35 44
4 Tuggeranong United 20 49 39 +10 42
5 Canberra Olympic 20 45 55 -10 23
6 Queanbeyan City 20 42 28 +14 38
7 Canberra Juventus 20 39 39 0 33
8 Belconnen United 20 25 50 -25 9
9 O'Connor Knights 20 24 39 -15 20
10 Canberra White Eagles 20 17 60 -43 7
11 Brindabella 20 15 66 -51 9