Rubin Kazan 2 vs Khimik Dzerzhinsk Statistics & Analysis

Rubin Kazan 2

Aug 09, 2026 - 13:00

1 1.22

3 1.38

xG Accuracy: 60%

Khimik Dzerzhinsk

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Khimik Dzerzhinsk Khimik Dzerzhinsk ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 01:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2963265

Closing Odds 1.37

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Khimik Dzerzhinsk win · Rubin Kazan 2 1–3 Khimik Dzerzhinsk

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Rubin Kazan 2 (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals, BTTS No meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 22.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Rubin Kazan 2 (1X2)	31.5	13.3	+18.2
Draw (1X2)	29.5	21.1	+8.4
Khimik Dzerzhinsk (1X2)	39.0	65.6	-26.6
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	70.2	-22.0
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	29.8	+22.0
BTTS Yes	54.4	63.2	-8.8
BTTS No	45.6	36.8	+8.8

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 29.8%. The difference — about 22.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Marathonbet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)	Implied Δ (pp)
Rubin Kazan 2 (1X2)	6.8	6.75	+0.1
Draw (1X2)	4.3	4.25	+0.3
Khimik Dzerzhinsk (1X2)	1.36	1.37	-0.4
Over 2.5 goals	1.29	1.29	0.0
Under 2.5 goals	3.04	3.04	0.0
BTTS Yes	1.44	1.44	0.0
BTTS No	2.47	2.47	0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Second League - Group 4
Fixture: Rubin Kazan 2 vs Khimik Dzerzhinsk
Kickoff: 2026-08-09 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.0%
xG (showing): Rubin Kazan 2 1.22 — Khimik Dzerzhinsk 1.38 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League - Group 4 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Khimik Dzerzhinsk	22	18	2	2	56
2	KDV	22	17	2	3	53
3	Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod	22	13	4	5	43
4	Akron II	22	10	2	10	32
5	Krylya Sovetov II	22	6	9	7	27
6	Dinamo Barnaul	22	7	5	10	26
7	Orenburg II	22	6	8	8	26
8	Izhevsk	22	5	8	9	23
9	Ural II	22	5	7	10	22
10	Rubin Kazan 2	22	4	8	10	20
11	Nosta	22	4	6	12	18
12	Chelyabinsk II	22	4	5	13	17

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Khimik Dzerzhinsk	22	57	16	+41	56
2	Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod	22	51	33	+18	43
3	Akron II	22	46	34	+12	32
4	KDV	22	40	20	+20	53
5	Ural II	22	34	44	-10	22
6	Orenburg II	22	31	35	-4	26
7	Dinamo Barnaul	22	31	50	-19	26
8	Izhevsk	22	30	32	-2	23
9	Krylya Sovetov II	22	25	26	-1	27
10	Rubin Kazan 2	22	25	35	-10	20
11	Nosta	22	20	48	-28	18
12	Chelyabinsk II	22	19	36	-17	17