Statistics / Football / Russia. Second League - Group 4 / Orenburg II vs Rubin Kazan 2

Orenburg II vs Rubin Kazan 2 Statistics & Analysis

Orenburg II Orenburg II
Jul 12, 2026 - 13:00
0 1.34
0 1.26
xG Accuracy: 49%
Rubin Kazan 2 Rubin Kazan 2
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Orenburg II Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 02:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1535489

Closing Odds 3.05
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Orenburg II 0–0 Rubin Kazan 2
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Rubin Kazan 2 (1X2), Under 2.5 goals, BTTS No meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 7.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Orenburg II (1X2) 37.5 40.5 -3.0
Draw (1X2) 29.7 30.1 -0.4
Rubin Kazan 2 (1X2) 32.9 29.5 +3.4
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 55.8 -7.6
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 44.2 +7.6
BTTS Yes 54.5 60.6 -6.1
BTTS No 45.5 39.4 +6.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 44.2%. The difference — about 7.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Marathonbet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Orenburg II (1X2) 2.22 2.22 0.0
Draw (1X2) 2.99 2.99 0.0
Rubin Kazan 2 (1X2) 3.05 3.05 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.65 1.65 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.08 2.08 0.0
BTTS Yes 1.5 1.5 0.0
BTTS No 2.31 2.31 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Second League - Group 4
  • Fixture: Orenburg II vs Rubin Kazan 2
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-12 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.5% · Draw 29.7% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Orenburg II 1.34 — Rubin Kazan 2 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 45.5% · Implied: 39.1% · Probability edge: +6.4 pts · Est. EV: +7.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Second League - Group 4 Second League - Group 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Khimik Dzerzhinsk 22 18 2 2 56
2 KDV 22 17 2 3 53
3 Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod 22 13 4 5 43
4 Akron II 22 10 2 10 32
5 Krylya Sovetov II 22 6 9 7 27
6 Dinamo Barnaul 22 7 5 10 26
7 Orenburg II 22 6 8 8 26
8 Izhevsk 22 5 8 9 23
9 Ural II 22 5 7 10 22
10 Rubin Kazan 2 22 4 8 10 20
11 Nosta 22 4 6 12 18
12 Chelyabinsk II 22 4 5 13 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Khimik Dzerzhinsk 22 57 16 +41 56
2 Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod 22 51 33 +18 43
3 Akron II 22 46 34 +12 32
4 KDV 22 40 20 +20 53
5 Ural II 22 34 44 -10 22
6 Orenburg II 22 31 35 -4 26
7 Dinamo Barnaul 22 31 50 -19 26
8 Izhevsk 22 30 32 -2 23
9 Krylya Sovetov II 22 25 26 -1 27
10 Rubin Kazan 2 22 25 35 -10 20
11 Nosta 22 20 48 -28 18
12 Chelyabinsk II 22 19 36 -17 17
Second League - Group 4 Russia. Second League - Group 4 Predictions