Statistics / Football / Russia. Second League - Group 4 / Khimik Dzerzhinsk vs Akron II

Khimik Dzerzhinsk vs Akron II Statistics & Analysis

Khimik Dzerzhinsk Khimik Dzerzhinsk
Jul 12, 2026 - 15:00
2 1.50
0 1.10
xG Accuracy: 64%
Akron II Akron II
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Khimik Dzerzhinsk Khimik Dzerzhinsk ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 2-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 15:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1469321

Closing Odds 1.24
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Khimik Dzerzhinsk win · Khimik Dzerzhinsk 2–0 Akron II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Akron II (1X2), Under 2.5 goals, BTTS No meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 20.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Khimik Dzerzhinsk (1X2) 47.8 72.5 -24.7
Draw (1X2) 27.9 16.6 +11.2
Akron II (1X2) 24.3 10.8 +13.5
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 68.6 -20.4
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 31.4 +20.4
BTTS Yes 53.4 56.5 -3.1
BTTS No 46.6 43.5 +3.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 31.4%. The difference — about 20.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Marathonbet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Khimik Dzerzhinsk (1X2) 1.24 1.24 0.0
Draw (1X2) 5.4 5.4 0.0
Akron II (1X2) 8.3 8.3 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.32 1.32 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.88 2.88 0.0
BTTS Yes 1.61 1.61 0.0
BTTS No 2.09 2.09 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Second League - Group 4
  • Fixture: Khimik Dzerzhinsk vs Akron II
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-12 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 47.8% · Draw 27.9% · Away 24.3%
  • xG (showing): Khimik Dzerzhinsk 1.5 — Akron II 1.1 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Khimik Dzerzhinsk & Akron II!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
Second League - Group 4 Second League - Group 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Khimik Dzerzhinsk 22 18 2 2 56
2 KDV 22 17 2 3 53
3 Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod 22 13 4 5 43
4 Akron II 22 10 2 10 32
5 Krylya Sovetov II 22 6 9 7 27
6 Dinamo Barnaul 22 7 5 10 26
7 Orenburg II 22 6 8 8 26
8 Izhevsk 22 5 8 9 23
9 Ural II 22 5 7 10 22
10 Rubin Kazan 2 22 4 8 10 20
11 Nosta 22 4 6 12 18
12 Chelyabinsk II 22 4 5 13 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Khimik Dzerzhinsk 22 57 16 +41 56
2 Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod 22 51 33 +18 43
3 Akron II 22 46 34 +12 32
4 KDV 22 40 20 +20 53
5 Ural II 22 34 44 -10 22
6 Orenburg II 22 31 35 -4 26
7 Dinamo Barnaul 22 31 50 -19 26
8 Izhevsk 22 30 32 -2 23
9 Krylya Sovetov II 22 25 26 -1 27
10 Rubin Kazan 2 22 25 35 -10 20
11 Nosta 22 20 48 -28 18
12 Chelyabinsk II 22 19 36 -17 17
Second League - Group 4 Russia. Second League - Group 4 Predictions