Statistics / Football / Russia. Second League - Group 4 / Dinamo Barnaul vs Rubin Kazan 2

Dinamo Barnaul vs Rubin Kazan 2 Statistics & Analysis

Dinamo Barnaul Dinamo Barnaul
Jun 28, 2026 - 10:00
2 1.20
0 1.40
xG Accuracy: 55%
Rubin Kazan 2 Rubin Kazan 2
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Rubin Kazan 2 Dinamo Barnaul ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1594147

Closing Odds 2.57
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Dinamo Barnaul win · Dinamo Barnaul 2–0 Rubin Kazan 2
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Rubin Kazan 2 (1X2), BTTS Yes meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Rubin Kazan 2 (1X2) by about 2.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Dinamo Barnaul (1X2) 31.0 35.0 -4.0
Draw (1X2) 29.3 28.2 +1.1
Rubin Kazan 2 (1X2) 39.7 36.8 +2.9
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 47.4 +0.8
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 52.6 -0.8
BTTS Yes 54.3 52.6 +1.7
BTTS No 45.7 47.4 -1.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 39.7% on Rubin Kazan 2 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 36.8%. The difference — about 2.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Marathonbet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Dinamo Barnaul (1X2) 2.57 2.57 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.18 3.18 0.0
Rubin Kazan 2 (1X2) 2.44 2.44 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.94 1.94 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.75 1.75 0.0
BTTS Yes 1.73 1.73 0.0
BTTS No 1.92 1.92 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Second League - Group 4
  • Fixture: Dinamo Barnaul vs Rubin Kazan 2
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-28 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.0% · Draw 29.3% · Away 39.7%
  • xG (showing): Dinamo Barnaul 1.2 — Rubin Kazan 2 1.4 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Second League - Group 4 Second League - Group 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Khimik Dzerzhinsk 22 18 2 2 56
2 KDV 22 17 2 3 53
3 Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod 22 13 4 5 43
4 Akron II 22 10 2 10 32
5 Krylya Sovetov II 22 6 9 7 27
6 Dinamo Barnaul 22 7 5 10 26
7 Orenburg II 22 6 8 8 26
8 Izhevsk 22 5 8 9 23
9 Ural II 22 5 7 10 22
10 Rubin Kazan 2 22 4 8 10 20
11 Nosta 22 4 6 12 18
12 Chelyabinsk II 22 4 5 13 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Khimik Dzerzhinsk 22 57 16 +41 56
2 Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod 22 51 33 +18 43
3 Akron II 22 46 34 +12 32
4 KDV 22 40 20 +20 53
5 Ural II 22 34 44 -10 22
6 Orenburg II 22 31 35 -4 26
7 Dinamo Barnaul 22 31 50 -19 26
8 Izhevsk 22 30 32 -2 23
9 Krylya Sovetov II 22 25 26 -1 27
10 Rubin Kazan 2 22 25 35 -10 20
11 Nosta 22 20 48 -28 18
12 Chelyabinsk II 22 19 36 -17 17
Second League - Group 4 Russia. Second League - Group 4 Predictions