Statistics / Football / Russia. Second League - Group 3 / Shumbrat vs Salyut-Belgorod

Shumbrat vs Salyut-Belgorod Statistics & Analysis

Shumbrat Shumbrat
Sep 26, 2026 - 10:00
0 1.20
1 1.40
xG Accuracy: 64%
Salyut-Belgorod Salyut-Belgorod
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Salyut-Belgorod Salyut-Belgorod ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 00:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10078363

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Salyut-Belgorod win · Shumbrat 0–1 Salyut-Belgorod
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Second League - Group 3
  • Fixture: Shumbrat vs Salyut-Belgorod
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.6% · Draw 29.5% · Away 40.0%
  • xG (showing): Shumbrat 1.2 — Salyut-Belgorod 1.4 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League - Group 3 Second League - Group 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Volna Nizhegorodskaya 22 18 2 2 56
2 FK Spartak Tambov 22 17 2 3 53
3 Shumbrat 22 12 4 6 40
4 Saturn Ramenskoye 22 12 4 6 40
5 Ryazan 21 11 7 3 40
6 Salyut-Belgorod 22 12 3 7 39
7 Metallurg Lipetsk 22 11 5 6 38
8 Avangard Kursk 22 8 6 8 30
9 Rodina Moskva III 22 8 4 10 28
10 Strogino 22 7 4 11 25
11 SKA Khabarovsk II 22 7 3 12 24
12 Zenit Penza 21 7 2 12 23
13 Orel 22 6 5 11 23
14 Rotor-2 22 4 2 16 14
15 Arsenal Tula II 22 2 8 12 14
16 Kvant 22 1 3 18 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Volna Nizhegorodskaya 22 47 13 +34 56
2 Metallurg Lipetsk 22 41 27 +14 38
3 Saturn Ramenskoye 22 41 31 +10 40
4 Shumbrat 22 40 29 +11 40
5 Rodina Moskva III 22 38 35 +3 28
6 FK Spartak Tambov 22 37 12 +25 53
7 Salyut-Belgorod 22 37 21 +16 39
8 Ryazan 21 35 13 +22 40
9 SKA Khabarovsk II 22 30 38 -8 24
10 Avangard Kursk 22 28 29 -1 30
11 Strogino 22 26 36 -10 25
12 Orel 22 26 39 -13 23
13 Zenit Penza 21 24 40 -16 23
14 Kvant 22 22 64 -42 6
15 Arsenal Tula II 22 19 44 -25 14
16 Rotor-2 22 15 35 -20 14
Second League - Group 3 Russia. Second League - Group 3 Predictions