Statistics / Football / Russia. Second League - Group 3 / Kvant vs Salyut-Belgorod

Kvant vs Salyut-Belgorod Statistics & Analysis

Kvant Kvant
Aug 15, 2026 - 12:00
1 1.00
3 1.60
xG Accuracy: 68%
Salyut-Belgorod Salyut-Belgorod
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Salyut-Belgorod Salyut-Belgorod ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-0 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 01:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3344114

Closing Odds 1.12
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Salyut-Belgorod win · Kvant 1–3 Salyut-Belgorod
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Kvant (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 23.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Kvant (1X2) 22.1 8.3 +13.8
Draw (1X2) 28.1 11.5 +16.6
Salyut-Belgorod (1X2) 49.8 80.1 -30.4
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 71.8 -23.6
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 28.2 +23.6
BTTS Yes 52.0 52.6 -0.6
BTTS No 48.0 47.4 +0.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 28.2%. The difference — about 23.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Marathonbet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Kvant (1X2) 10.75 10.75 0.0
Draw (1X2) 7.8 7.8 0.0
Salyut-Belgorod (1X2) 1.12 1.12 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.26 1.26 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 3.2 3.2 0.0
BTTS Yes 1.73 1.73 0.0
BTTS No 1.92 1.92 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Salyut-Belgorod; market prices Salyut-Belgorod instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Kvant 1.00 xG vs Salyut-Belgorod 1.60 → Salyut-Belgorod 49.8%
  • Market: Salyut-Belgorod ~80.1% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 52.0% · No 48.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Second League - Group 3 Second League - Group 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Volna Nizhegorodskaya 22 18 2 2 56
2 FK Spartak Tambov 22 17 2 3 53
3 Shumbrat 22 12 4 6 40
4 Saturn Ramenskoye 22 12 4 6 40
5 Ryazan 21 11 7 3 40
6 Salyut-Belgorod 22 12 3 7 39
7 Metallurg Lipetsk 22 11 5 6 38
8 Avangard Kursk 22 8 6 8 30
9 Rodina Moskva III 22 8 4 10 28
10 Strogino 22 7 4 11 25
11 SKA Khabarovsk II 22 7 3 12 24
12 Zenit Penza 21 7 2 12 23
13 Orel 22 6 5 11 23
14 Rotor-2 22 4 2 16 14
15 Arsenal Tula II 22 2 8 12 14
16 Kvant 22 1 3 18 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Volna Nizhegorodskaya 22 47 13 +34 56
2 Metallurg Lipetsk 22 41 27 +14 38
3 Saturn Ramenskoye 22 41 31 +10 40
4 Shumbrat 22 40 29 +11 40
5 Rodina Moskva III 22 38 35 +3 28
6 FK Spartak Tambov 22 37 12 +25 53
7 Salyut-Belgorod 22 37 21 +16 39
8 Ryazan 21 35 13 +22 40
9 SKA Khabarovsk II 22 30 38 -8 24
10 Avangard Kursk 22 28 29 -1 30
11 Strogino 22 26 36 -10 25
12 Orel 22 26 39 -13 23
13 Zenit Penza 21 24 40 -16 23
14 Kvant 22 22 64 -42 6
15 Arsenal Tula II 22 19 44 -25 14
16 Rotor-2 22 15 35 -20 14
Second League - Group 3 Russia. Second League - Group 3 Predictions