Luki-Energiya vs Tver Statistics & Analysis

Luki-Energiya

Jun 21, 2026 - 13:00

2 1.37

1 1.23

xG Accuracy: 79%

Tver

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Luki-Energiya Luki-Energiya ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 03, 2026 · 06:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2914578

Closing Odds 1.35

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Luki-Energiya win · Luki-Energiya 2–1 Tver

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 2.75 percentage points on Luki-Energiya (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Tver (1X2) by about 21.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Luki-Energiya (1X2)	38.5	66.5	-28.1
Draw (1X2)	29.6	22.9	+6.7
Tver (1X2)	31.9	10.6	+21.4
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	50.0	-1.8
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	50.0	+1.8
BTTS Yes	54.4	42.7	+11.7
BTTS No	45.6	57.3	-11.7

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 31.9% on Tver (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 10.6%. The difference — about 21.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Marathonbet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
Luki-Energiya (1X2)	1.41	1.35	+2.8
Draw (1X2)	3.64	3.92	-1.8
Tver (1X2)	7.8	8.5	-1.0
Over 2.5 goals	1.85	1.85	0.0
Under 2.5 goals	1.85	1.85	0.0
BTTS Yes	2.03	2.13	-2.1
BTTS No	1.65	1.59	+2.1

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Second League - Group 2
Fixture: Luki-Energiya vs Tver
Kickoff: 2026-06-21 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
xG (showing): Luki-Energiya 1.37 — Tver 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Second League - Group 2 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Murom	21	14	2	5	44
1	Sevastopol	14	10	2	2	32
2	Dinamo St. Petersburg	20	12	6	2	42
2	Shahter Taganrog	14	9	3	2	30
3	Luki-Energiya	21	12	6	3	42
3	Rostov II	14	9	2	3	29
4	Baltika II	21	12	4	5	40
4	Nart Cherkessk	14	7	3	4	24
5	Chertanovo Moscow	21	11	6	4	39
5	Kyzyltash	14	7	2	5	23
6	Torpedo Vladimir	20	9	5	6	32
6	Spartak Nalchik	14	6	5	3	23
7	Kosmos Dolgoprudny	21	8	4	9	28
7	Druzhba	14	6	4	4	22
8	Tver	21	7	3	11	24
8	Pobeda	14	6	3	5	21
9	Cherepovets	20	7	3	10	24
9	Rubin Yalta	14	5	5	4	20
10	Zvezda St. Petersburg	20	5	9	6	24
10	Lugansk	14	4	3	7	15
11	Dinamo Vologda	20	6	5	9	23
11	Izberbash	14	5	0	9	15
12	Spartak Moscow 2	21	6	5	10	23
12	Angust Nazran	14	4	1	9	13
13	Yenisey II	21	5	4	12	19
13	Astrakhan	14	3	3	8	12
14	Iskra Smolensk	21	3	6	12	15
14	Dynamo Makhachkala II	14	2	3	9	9
15	Irkutsk	21	3	2	16	11
15	FK Chayka 2	14	2	1	11	7
16	PSK Dinskaya	0	0	0	0	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Baltika II	21	42	23	+19	40
2	Chertanovo Moscow	21	39	18	+21	39
3	Luki-Energiya	21	36	18	+18	42
4	Murom	21	35	17	+18	44
5	Dinamo St. Petersburg	20	32	10	+22	42
6	Tver	21	30	36	-6	24
7	Zvezda St. Petersburg	20	29	29	0	24
8	Rostov II	14	28	14	+14	29
9	Dinamo Vologda	20	28	25	+3	23
10	Pobeda	14	26	16	+10	21
11	Torpedo Vladimir	20	25	20	+5	32
12	Shahter Taganrog	14	24	9	+15	30
13	Kosmos Dolgoprudny	21	24	30	-6	28
14	Sevastopol	14	23	9	+14	32
15	Yenisey II	21	23	40	-17	19
16	Kyzyltash	14	22	17	+5	23
17	Spartak Nalchik	14	21	10	+11	23
18	Spartak Moscow 2	21	21	27	-6	23
19	Cherepovets	20	21	32	-11	24
20	Nart Cherkessk	14	19	10	+9	24
21	Iskra Smolensk	21	19	44	-25	15
22	Rubin Yalta	14	17	13	+4	20
23	Druzhba	14	17	14	+3	22
24	Lugansk	14	15	22	-7	15
25	Izberbash	14	13	36	-23	15
26	Astrakhan	14	12	20	-8	12
27	Irkutsk	21	11	46	-35	11
28	Dynamo Makhachkala II	14	10	26	-16	9
29	FK Chayka 2	14	10	32	-22	7
30	Angust Nazran	14	7	16	-9	13
31	PSK Dinskaya	0	0	0	0	0