Izberbash vs Astrakhan Statistics & Analysis

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Izberbash

Sep 19, 2026 - 13:00

0 1.29

0 1.31

xG Accuracy: 49%

Astrakhan

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Astrakhan Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8670984

Closing Odds 2.33

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Izberbash 0–0 Astrakhan

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Izberbash (1X2), Under 2.5 goals, BTTS No meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 13.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Izberbash (1X2)	34.7	32.8	+1.9
Draw (1X2)	29.7	28.9	+0.7
Astrakhan (1X2)	35.6	38.3	-2.7
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	62.0	-13.8
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	38.0	+13.8
BTTS Yes	54.5	65.9	-11.4
BTTS No	45.5	34.1	+11.4

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 38.0%. The difference — about 13.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Marathonbet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Izberbash (1X2)	2.72	2.72
Draw (1X2)	3.08	3.08
Astrakhan (1X2)	2.33	2.33
Over 2.5 goals	1.46	1.46
Under 2.5 goals	2.38	2.38
BTTS Yes	1.38	1.38
BTTS No	2.67	2.67

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Second League - Group 1
Fixture: Izberbash vs Astrakhan
Kickoff: 2026-09-19 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
xG (showing): Izberbash 1.29 — Astrakhan 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
Model: 45.5% · Implied: 33.8% · Probability edge: +11.7 pts · Est. EV: +24.7%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League - Group 1 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Sevastopol	21	16	2	3	50
2	Shahter Taganrog	21	14	4	3	46
3	Rostov II	21	14	4	3	46
4	Rubin Yalta	20	9	7	4	34
5	Pobeda	20	10	3	7	33
6	Kyzyltash	21	9	4	8	31
7	Nart Cherkessk	20	9	3	8	30
8	Spartak Nalchik	20	7	7	6	28
9	Druzhba	20	7	6	7	27
10	Lugansk	21	6	6	9	24
11	Astrakhan	20	5	5	10	20
12	Izberbash	21	6	0	15	18
13	Angust Nazran	20	4	4	12	16
14	FK Chayka 2	21	4	2	15	14
15	Dynamo Makhachkala II	21	3	5	13	14
16	PSK Dinskaya	0	0	0	0	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Rostov II	21	45	16	+29	46
2	Shahter Taganrog	21	42	20	+22	46
3	Sevastopol	21	38	17	+21	50
4	Pobeda	20	38	27	+11	33
5	Kyzyltash	21	36	30	+6	31
6	Rubin Yalta	20	29	19	+10	34
7	Nart Cherkessk	20	27	19	+8	30
8	Spartak Nalchik	20	27	20	+7	28
9	Lugansk	21	24	30	-6	24
10	Druzhba	20	23	25	-2	27
11	Astrakhan	20	22	32	-10	20
12	Dynamo Makhachkala II	21	19	39	-20	14
13	Izberbash	21	19	57	-38	18
14	FK Chayka 2	21	17	43	-26	14
15	Angust Nazran	20	9	21	-12	16
16	PSK Dinskaya	0	0	0	0	0