Lugansk vs Spartak Nalchik Statistics & Analysis

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Lugansk

Aug 16, 2026 - 13:00

2 1.45

2 1.15

xG Accuracy: 68%

Spartak Nalchik

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Lugansk Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 01:13 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3604315

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Lugansk 2–2 Spartak Nalchik

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Second League - Group 1
Fixture: Lugansk vs Spartak Nalchik
Kickoff: 2026-08-16 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 42.4% · Draw 29.2% · Away 28.4%
xG (showing): Lugansk 1.45 — Spartak Nalchik 1.15 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Second League - Group 1 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Sevastopol	20	15	2	3	47
2	Shahter Taganrog	20	14	3	3	45
3	Rostov II	20	13	4	3	43
4	Rubin Yalta	20	9	7	4	34
5	Kyzyltash	20	9	4	7	31
6	Pobeda	19	9	3	7	30
7	Spartak Nalchik	19	7	7	5	28
8	Nart Cherkessk	19	8	3	8	27
9	Druzhba	19	6	6	7	24
10	Lugansk	20	6	5	9	23
11	Astrakhan	19	5	4	10	19
12	Izberbash	20	6	0	14	18
13	Angust Nazran	19	4	4	11	16
14	FK Chayka 2	20	4	2	14	14
15	Dynamo Makhachkala II	20	3	4	13	13
16	PSK Dinskaya	0	0	0	0	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Rostov II	20	43	16	+27	43
2	Shahter Taganrog	20	41	19	+22	45
3	Sevastopol	20	36	16	+20	47
4	Pobeda	19	36	26	+10	30
5	Kyzyltash	20	35	28	+7	31
6	Rubin Yalta	20	29	19	+10	34
7	Spartak Nalchik	19	27	19	+8	28
8	Nart Cherkessk	19	26	19	+7	27
9	Lugansk	20	23	29	-6	23
10	Druzhba	19	22	25	-3	24
11	Astrakhan	19	21	31	-10	19
12	Dynamo Makhachkala II	20	18	38	-20	13
13	Izberbash	20	18	55	-37	18
14	FK Chayka 2	20	17	41	-24	14
15	Angust Nazran	19	9	20	-11	16
16	PSK Dinskaya	0	0	0	0	0