Åsane W vs Frigg Oslo FK W Statistics & Analysis

Åsane W

Sep 13, 2026 - 11:30

4 1.34

0 1.26

xG Accuracy: 34%

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Frigg Oslo FK W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Åsane W Åsane W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7427114

Closing Odds 1.2

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Åsane W win · Åsane W 4–0 Frigg Oslo FK W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Frigg Oslo FK W (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Frigg Oslo FK W (1X2) by about 23.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Åsane W (1X2)	37.0	75.0	-38.0
Draw (1X2)	29.6	15.0	+14.6
Frigg Oslo FK W (1X2)	33.4	10.0	+23.4
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	66.3	-18.1
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	33.7	+18.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 33.4% on Frigg Oslo FK W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 10.0%. The difference — about 23.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Åsane W (1X2)	1.2	1.2
Draw (1X2)	6.0	6.0
Frigg Oslo FK W (1X2)	9.0	9.0
Over 2.5 goals	1.4	1.4
Under 2.5 goals	2.75	2.75

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Åsane W; market prices Åsane W instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: Åsane W 1.34 xG vs Frigg Oslo FK W 1.26 → Åsane W 37.1%
Market: Åsane W ~75.0% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

1. Division Women — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Start W	8	6	2	0	20
2	Viking FK	8	6	1	1	19
3	Åsane W	8	5	3	0	18
4	TIL 2020 W	8	5	2	1	17
5	Arna-Bjørnar W	8	4	2	2	14
6	Bryne W	8	3	2	3	11
7	Odd	8	2	3	3	9
8	Kolbotn W	8	2	2	4	8
9	Grei	8	2	1	5	7
10	Klepp W	8	2	0	6	6
11	Frigg Oslo FK W	8	1	0	7	3
12	Fyllingsdalen W	8	1	0	7	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Viking FK	8	25	7	+18	19
2	TIL 2020 W	8	19	5	+14	17
3	Åsane W	8	17	6	+11	18
4	Start W	8	17	8	+9	20
5	Grei	8	16	18	-2	7
6	Arna-Bjørnar W	8	13	9	+4	14
7	Kolbotn W	8	11	12	-1	8
8	Klepp W	8	11	26	-15	6
9	Odd	8	9	10	-1	9
10	Fyllingsdalen W	8	9	27	-18	3
11	Bryne W	8	7	9	-2	11
12	Frigg Oslo FK W	8	4	21	-17	3