Statistics / Football / Australia. Western Australia State League 1 / Subiaco vs Floreat Athena

Subiaco vs Floreat Athena Statistics & Analysis

Subiaco Subiaco
Jul 25, 2026 - 07:00
1 1.26
2 1.34
xG Accuracy: 78%
Floreat Athena Floreat Athena
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Floreat Athena Floreat Athena ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1453212

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Floreat Athena win · Subiaco 1–2 Floreat Athena
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Western Australia State League 1
  • Fixture: Subiaco vs Floreat Athena
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-25 07:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
  • xG (showing): Subiaco 1.26 — Floreat Athena 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Western Australia State League 1 Western Australia State League 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Floreat Athena 21 15 4 2 49
2 UWA Nedlands 22 14 2 6 44
3 Mandurah City 22 11 3 8 36
4 Joondalup City 22 11 3 8 36
5 Quinns FC 21 11 3 7 36
6 Inglewood United 22 9 6 7 33
7 Kingsley Westside 22 10 2 10 32
8 Gwelup Croatia 22 6 7 9 25
9 Cockburn City 22 6 5 11 23
10 Murdoch Melville 22 5 7 10 22
11 Subiaco 22 6 2 14 20
12 Curtin University 22 3 4 15 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Floreat Athena 21 56 24 +32 49
2 Mandurah City 22 47 39 +8 36
3 UWA Nedlands 22 45 28 +17 44
4 Kingsley Westside 22 38 33 +5 32
5 Murdoch Melville 22 38 46 -8 22
6 Joondalup City 22 36 32 +4 36
7 Subiaco 22 36 46 -10 20
8 Gwelup Croatia 22 36 47 -11 25
9 Quinns FC 21 34 36 -2 36
10 Cockburn City 22 34 49 -15 23
11 Inglewood United 22 26 24 +2 33
12 Curtin University 22 19 41 -22 13