Statistics / Football / Australia. Western Australia State League 1 / Subiaco vs Murdoch Melville

Subiaco vs Murdoch Melville Statistics & Analysis

Subiaco Subiaco
Jul 11, 2026 - 07:00
1 1.25
1 1.35
xG Accuracy: 85%
Murdoch Melville Murdoch Melville
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Murdoch Melville Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1484518

Closing Odds 2.35
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Subiaco 1–1 Murdoch Melville
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 16.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Subiaco (1X2) 34.0 36.8 -2.7
Draw (1X2) 28.6 26.8 +1.8
Murdoch Melville (1X2) 37.4 36.4 +0.9
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 64.6 -16.4
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 35.4 +16.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 35.4%. The difference — about 16.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Subiaco (1X2) 2.35 2.35 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.22 3.22 0.0
Murdoch Melville (1X2) 2.37 2.37 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.38 1.38 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.52 2.52 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Western Australia State League 1
  • Fixture: Subiaco vs Murdoch Melville
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-11 07:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.1% · Draw 28.6% · Away 37.4%
  • xG (showing): Subiaco 1.25 — Murdoch Melville 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 34.6% · Probability edge: +17.2 pts · Est. EV: +42.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Western Australia State League 1 Western Australia State League 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Floreat Athena 21 15 4 2 49
2 UWA Nedlands 22 14 2 6 44
3 Mandurah City 22 11 3 8 36
4 Joondalup City 22 11 3 8 36
5 Quinns FC 21 11 3 7 36
6 Inglewood United 22 9 6 7 33
7 Kingsley Westside 22 10 2 10 32
8 Gwelup Croatia 22 6 7 9 25
9 Cockburn City 22 6 5 11 23
10 Murdoch Melville 22 5 7 10 22
11 Subiaco 22 6 2 14 20
12 Curtin University 22 3 4 15 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Floreat Athena 21 56 24 +32 49
2 Mandurah City 22 47 39 +8 36
3 UWA Nedlands 22 45 28 +17 44
4 Kingsley Westside 22 38 33 +5 32
5 Murdoch Melville 22 38 46 -8 22
6 Joondalup City 22 36 32 +4 36
7 Subiaco 22 36 46 -10 20
8 Gwelup Croatia 22 36 47 -11 25
9 Quinns FC 21 34 36 -2 36
10 Cockburn City 22 34 49 -15 23
11 Inglewood United 22 26 24 +2 33
12 Curtin University 22 19 41 -22 13