Statistics / Football / Kazakhstan. 1. Division / Jaiyq vs Khan Tengri

Jaiyq vs Khan Tengri Statistics & Analysis

⚽
Jaiyq
Jul 23, 2026 - 13:00
2 1.44
0 1.16
xG Accuracy: 62%
Khan Tengri Khan Tengri
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Jaiyq Jaiyq ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1449444

Closing Odds 3.52
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Jaiyq win · Jaiyq 2–0 Khan Tengri
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals, BTTS No meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 6.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Jaiyq (1X2) 42.0 43.4 -1.4
Draw (1X2) 29.0 25.5 +3.5
Khan Tengri (1X2) 29.0 31.1 -2.1
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 54.2 -6.0
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 45.8 +6.0
BTTS Yes 54.0 57.6 -3.6
BTTS No 46.0 42.4 +3.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 45.8%. The difference — about 6.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Marathonbet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Jaiyq (1X2) 2.07 2.07 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.52 3.52 0.0
Khan Tengri (1X2) 2.89 2.89 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.7 1.7 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.01 2.01 0.0
BTTS Yes 1.58 1.58 0.0
BTTS No 2.15 2.15 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Kazakhstan First Division
  • Fixture: Jaiyq vs Khan Tengri
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-23 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 42.0% · Draw 29.0% · Away 29.0%
  • xG (showing): Jaiyq 1.44 — Khan Tengri 1.16 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 46.3% · Probability edge: +5.5 pts · Est. EV: +5.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
1. Division 1. Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Shakhter Karagandy 23 20 2 1 62
2 Sport Academy Kairat 23 17 5 1 56
3 Turan Turkistan 23 16 2 5 50
4 Akademiya Ontustik 23 13 4 6 43
5 Astana II 23 10 3 10 33
6 Jaiyq 23 9 4 10 31
7 Taraz 23 8 6 9 30
8 Ekibastuz 23 7 5 11 26
9 Kaspij Aktau 2 23 7 4 12 25
10 Khan Tengri 23 7 4 12 25
11 Arys 23 7 3 13 24
12 Aktobe Jas 23 6 5 12 23
13 Tobol 2 23 4 4 15 16
14 Yelimay Semey 2 23 3 3 17 12
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sport Academy Kairat 23 66 12 +54 56
2 Shakhter Karagandy 23 64 8 +56 62
3 Turan Turkistan 23 51 21 +30 50
4 Astana II 23 42 43 -1 33
5 Tobol 2 23 40 57 -17 16
6 Aktobe Jas 23 38 69 -31 23
7 Akademiya Ontustik 23 36 27 +9 43
8 Ekibastuz 23 31 53 -22 26
9 Taraz 23 30 32 -2 30
10 Kaspij Aktau 2 23 29 41 -12 25
11 Arys 23 29 43 -14 24
12 Khan Tengri 23 29 44 -15 25
13 Jaiyq 23 21 26 -5 31
14 Yelimay Semey 2 23 17 47 -30 12