Statistics / Football / Kazakhstan. 1. Division / Akademiya Ontustik vs Astana II

Akademiya Ontustik vs Astana II Statistics & Analysis

Akademiya Ontustik Akademiya Ontustik
Jul 23, 2026 - 12:00
2 1.33
1 1.27
xG Accuracy: 77%
Astana II Astana II
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Akademiya Ontustik Akademiya Ontustik ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1449439

Closing Odds 3.84
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Akademiya Ontustik win · Akademiya Ontustik 2–1 Astana II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals, BTTS No meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 18.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Akademiya Ontustik (1X2) 36.6 42.8 -6.2
Draw (1X2) 29.6 23.4 +6.2
Astana II (1X2) 33.8 33.8 -0.0
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 66.4 -18.2
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 33.6 +18.2
BTTS Yes 54.5 66.9 -12.4
BTTS No 45.5 33.1 +12.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 33.6%. The difference — about 18.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Marathonbet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Akademiya Ontustik (1X2) 2.1 2.1 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.84 3.84 0.0
Astana II (1X2) 2.66 2.66 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.36 1.36 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.69 2.69 0.0
BTTS Yes 1.36 1.36 0.0
BTTS No 2.75 2.75 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Kazakhstan First Division
  • Fixture: Akademiya Ontustik vs Astana II
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-23 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
  • xG (showing): Akademiya Ontustik 1.33 — Astana II 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 33.1% · Probability edge: +18.7 pts · Est. EV: +49.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
1. Division 1. Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Shakhter Karagandy 23 20 2 1 62
2 Sport Academy Kairat 23 17 5 1 56
3 Turan Turkistan 23 16 2 5 50
4 Akademiya Ontustik 23 13 4 6 43
5 Astana II 23 10 3 10 33
6 Jaiyq 23 9 4 10 31
7 Taraz 23 8 6 9 30
8 Ekibastuz 23 7 5 11 26
9 Kaspij Aktau 2 23 7 4 12 25
10 Khan Tengri 23 7 4 12 25
11 Arys 23 7 3 13 24
12 Aktobe Jas 23 6 5 12 23
13 Tobol 2 23 4 4 15 16
14 Yelimay Semey 2 23 3 3 17 12
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sport Academy Kairat 23 66 12 +54 56
2 Shakhter Karagandy 23 64 8 +56 62
3 Turan Turkistan 23 51 21 +30 50
4 Astana II 23 42 43 -1 33
5 Tobol 2 23 40 57 -17 16
6 Aktobe Jas 23 38 69 -31 23
7 Akademiya Ontustik 23 36 27 +9 43
8 Ekibastuz 23 31 53 -22 26
9 Taraz 23 30 32 -2 30
10 Kaspij Aktau 2 23 29 41 -12 25
11 Arys 23 29 43 -14 24
12 Khan Tengri 23 29 44 -15 25
13 Jaiyq 23 21 26 -5 31
14 Yelimay Semey 2 23 17 47 -30 12