Statistics / Football / Belarus. 1. Division / Volna vs Lida

Volna vs Lida Statistics & Analysis

Volna Volna
Oct 02, 2026 - 14:30
0 1.22
2 1.38
xG Accuracy: 60%
Lida Lida
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Lida Lida ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 03:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11249421

Closing Odds 3.56
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Lida win · Volna 0–2 Lida
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals, BTTS No meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 19.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Volna (1X2) 31.5 34.7 -3.2
Draw (1X2) 29.5 25.0 +4.5
Lida (1X2) 39.0 40.3 -1.3
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 68.0 -19.8
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 32.0 +19.8
BTTS Yes 54.4 69.4 -15.0
BTTS No 45.6 30.6 +15.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 32.0%. The difference — about 19.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Marathonbet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Volna (1X2) 2.57 2.57 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.56 3.56 0.0
Lida (1X2) 2.21 2.21 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.33 1.33 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.83 2.83 0.0
BTTS Yes 1.31 1.31 0.0
BTTS No 2.97 2.97 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 1. Division
  • Fixture: Volna vs Lida
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-02 14:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.0%
  • xG (showing): Volna 1.22 — Lida 1.38 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 32.0% · Probability edge: +19.8 pts · Est. EV: +46.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
1. Division 1. Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FC Slutsk 27 17 6 4 57
2 Niva 27 17 4 6 55
3 Lida 27 17 3 7 54
4 FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 27 16 5 6 53
5 Slonim 27 14 5 8 47
6 Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 26 14 3 9 45
7 Shakhter Soligorsk 27 11 7 9 40
8 Bumprom 26 11 5 10 38
9 Dinamo Minsk II 25 10 5 10 35
10 Ostrovets FC 27 8 11 8 35
11 Volna 27 10 4 13 34
12 Smorgon 27 9 6 12 33
13 Minsk II 26 9 3 14 30
14 Orsha 27 7 6 14 27
15 Uni Minsk 26 6 8 12 26
16 BATE II 27 5 7 15 22
17 Gomel II 27 5 6 16 21
18 Osipovichy 27 5 4 18 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Niva 27 67 31 +36 55
2 FC Slutsk 27 56 28 +28 57
3 FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 27 56 31 +25 53
4 Shakhter Soligorsk 27 52 44 +8 40
5 Lida 27 51 43 +8 54
6 Bumprom 26 50 40 +10 38
7 Slonim 27 49 32 +17 47
8 Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 26 45 40 +5 45
9 Dinamo Minsk II 25 42 37 +5 35
10 Volna 27 40 50 -10 34
11 Ostrovets FC 27 37 39 -2 35
12 Minsk II 26 36 48 -12 30
13 Gomel II 27 36 55 -19 21
14 BATE II 27 36 61 -25 22
15 Smorgon 27 33 36 -3 33
16 Osipovichy 27 29 67 -38 19
17 Orsha 27 28 51 -23 27
18 Uni Minsk 26 25 35 -10 26
1. Division Belarus. 1. Division Predictions