Statistics / Football / Belarus. 1. Division / Lida vs Slonim

Lida vs Slonim Statistics & Analysis

Lida Lida
Jul 26, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.55
3 1.05
xG Accuracy: 50%
Slonim Slonim
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Lida Slonim ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:47 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1451301

Closing Odds 4.2
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Slonim win · Lida 1–3 Slonim
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE5 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals, BTTS No meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 18.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Lida (1X2) 47.3 53.8 -6.5
Draw (1X2) 28.5 21.4 +7.2
Slonim (1X2) 24.1 24.8 -0.7
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 66.5 -18.3
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 33.5 +18.3
BTTS Yes 52.8 65.0 -12.2
BTTS No 47.2 35.0 +12.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 33.5%. The difference — about 18.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE5 → PRE1 · Book: Marathonbet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE5) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Lida (1X2) 1.67 1.67 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.2 4.2 0.0
Slonim (1X2) 3.62 3.62 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.36 1.36 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.7 2.7 0.0
BTTS Yes 1.4 1.4 0.0
BTTS No 2.6 2.6 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Belarus First Division
  • Fixture: Lida vs Slonim
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-26 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 47.3% · Draw 28.5% · Away 24.1%
  • xG (showing): Lida 1.55 — Slonim 1.05 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 34.1% · Probability edge: +17.7 pts · Est. EV: +39.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
1. Division 1. Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Niva 26 17 3 6 54
2 FC Slutsk 26 16 6 4 54
3 Lida 26 16 3 7 51
4 FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 26 15 5 6 50
5 Slonim 26 14 4 8 46
6 Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 25 14 3 8 45
7 Shakhter Soligorsk 26 11 6 9 39
8 Bumprom 25 11 4 10 37
9 Dinamo Minsk II 25 10 5 10 35
10 Ostrovets FC 26 8 10 8 34
11 Volna 26 10 4 12 34
12 Smorgon 26 8 6 12 30
13 Minsk II 26 9 3 14 30
14 Uni Minsk 26 6 8 12 26
15 Orsha 26 7 5 14 26
16 Gomel II 26 5 6 15 21
17 BATE II 26 5 6 15 21
18 Osipovichy 25 5 3 17 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Niva 26 67 31 +36 54
2 FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 26 53 31 +22 50
3 FC Slutsk 26 52 27 +25 54
4 Shakhter Soligorsk 26 51 43 +8 39
5 Lida 26 49 43 +6 51
6 Slonim 26 48 31 +17 46
7 Bumprom 25 47 37 +10 37
8 Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 25 44 36 +8 45
9 Dinamo Minsk II 25 42 37 +5 35
10 Volna 26 40 48 -8 34
11 Ostrovets FC 26 36 38 -2 34
12 Minsk II 26 36 48 -12 30
13 Gomel II 26 36 52 -16 21
14 BATE II 26 35 60 -25 21
15 Smorgon 26 31 36 -5 30
16 Orsha 26 28 51 -23 26
17 Osipovichy 25 26 62 -36 18
18 Uni Minsk 26 25 35 -10 26
1. Division Belarus. 1. Division Predictions