Statistics / Football / Belarus. 1. Division / Orsha vs Smorgon

Orsha vs Smorgon Statistics & Analysis

Orsha Orsha
Jul 11, 2026 - 11:30
1 1.19
1 1.41
xG Accuracy: 85%
Smorgon Smorgon
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Smorgon Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 04:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1550604

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Orsha 1–1 Smorgon
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 1. Division
  • Fixture: Orsha vs Smorgon
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-11 11:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.1% · Draw 29.4% · Away 40.5%
  • xG (showing): Orsha 1.19 — Smorgon 1.41 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
1. Division 1. Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Niva 26 17 3 6 54
2 FC Slutsk 26 16 6 4 54
3 Lida 26 16 3 7 51
4 FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 26 15 5 6 50
5 Slonim 26 14 4 8 46
6 Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 25 14 3 8 45
7 Shakhter Soligorsk 26 11 6 9 39
8 Bumprom 25 11 4 10 37
9 Dinamo Minsk II 25 10 5 10 35
10 Ostrovets FC 26 8 10 8 34
11 Volna 26 10 4 12 34
12 Smorgon 26 8 6 12 30
13 Minsk II 26 9 3 14 30
14 Uni Minsk 26 6 8 12 26
15 Orsha 26 7 5 14 26
16 Gomel II 26 5 6 15 21
17 BATE II 26 5 6 15 21
18 Osipovichy 25 5 3 17 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Niva 26 67 31 +36 54
2 FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 26 53 31 +22 50
3 FC Slutsk 26 52 27 +25 54
4 Shakhter Soligorsk 26 51 43 +8 39
5 Lida 26 49 43 +6 51
6 Slonim 26 48 31 +17 46
7 Bumprom 25 47 37 +10 37
8 Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 25 44 36 +8 45
9 Dinamo Minsk II 25 42 37 +5 35
10 Volna 26 40 48 -8 34
11 Ostrovets FC 26 36 38 -2 34
12 Minsk II 26 36 48 -12 30
13 Gomel II 26 36 52 -16 21
14 BATE II 26 35 60 -25 21
15 Smorgon 26 31 36 -5 30
16 Orsha 26 28 51 -23 26
17 Osipovichy 25 26 62 -36 18
18 Uni Minsk 26 25 35 -10 26
1. Division Belarus. 1. Division Predictions