Statistics / Football / Romania. Liga II / Dumbrăviţa vs CS Afumati

Dumbrăviţa vs CS Afumati Statistics & Analysis

Dumbrăviţa Dumbrăviţa
May 09, 2026 - 08:00
1 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 63%
CS Afumati CS Afumati
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Dumbrăviţa Dumbrăviţa ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 17:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3061788

Closing Odds 1.61
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Dumbrăviţa win · Dumbrăviţa 1–0 CS Afumati
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices CS Afumati (1X2), Over 2.5 goals, BTTS Yes meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on CS Afumati (1X2) by about 13.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Dumbrăviţa (1X2) 41.8 55.8 -14.0
Draw (1X2) 25.7 24.7 +1.0
CS Afumati (1X2) 32.6 19.5 +13.0
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 49.3 +1.3
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 50.7 -1.3
BTTS Yes 56.2 50.0 +6.2
BTTS No 43.8 50.0 -6.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.6% on CS Afumati (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 19.5%. The difference — about 13.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Marathonbet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Dumbrăviţa (1X2) 1.61 1.61 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.64 3.64 0.0
CS Afumati (1X2) 4.6 4.6 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.87 1.87 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.82 1.82 0.0
BTTS Yes 1.82 1.82 0.0
BTTS No 1.82 1.82 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Liga II
  • Fixture: Dumbrăviţa vs CS Afumati
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 08:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Dumbrăviţa 1.45 — CS Afumati 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 56.2% · Implied: 50.2% · Probability edge: +6.0 pts · Est. EV: +4.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 60.5% · No 39.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Liga II Liga II — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Corvinul Hunedoara 21 16 5 0 53
2 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 21 13 5 3 44
3 Chindia Targoviste 21 12 3 6 39
4 Bihor Oradea 21 12 3 6 39
5 FC Voluntari 21 11 6 4 39
6 CSA Steaua Bucureşti 21 12 3 6 39
7 ASA Targu Mures 21 11 4 6 37
8 CSM Reşiţa 21 10 3 8 33
9 FC Bacau 21 9 6 6 33
10 Metalul Buzău 21 10 2 9 32
11 Politehnica Iasi 21 9 4 8 31
12 CS Afumati 21 9 3 9 30
13 Concordia 21 8 3 10 27
14 Gloria Bistriţa 21 7 5 9 26
15 Slatina 21 7 5 9 26
16 Dumbrăviţa 21 7 4 10 25
17 Viitorul Şelimbăr 21 5 5 11 20
18 Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ 21 5 3 13 18
19 CS Dinamo București 21 3 7 11 16
20 Tunari 21 3 7 11 16
21 CSM Satu Mare 21 4 2 15 14
22 Muscelul Câmpulung Elite 21 2 4 15 10
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bihor Oradea 21 40 24 +16 39
2 Chindia Targoviste 21 38 20 +18 39
3 Corvinul Hunedoara 21 37 13 +24 53
4 ASA Targu Mures 21 37 22 +15 37
5 CSA Steaua Bucureşti 21 36 27 +9 39
6 CSM Reşiţa 21 35 29 +6 33
7 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 21 34 18 +16 44
8 Metalul Buzău 21 33 26 +7 32
9 FC Voluntari 21 30 16 +14 39
10 CS Afumati 21 30 26 +4 30
11 Concordia 21 29 24 +5 27
12 Gloria Bistriţa 21 29 29 0 26
13 FC Bacau 21 28 26 +2 33
14 Slatina 21 27 28 -1 26
15 Viitorul Şelimbăr 21 27 32 -5 20
16 Politehnica Iasi 21 25 22 +3 31
17 Dumbrăviţa 21 25 33 -8 25
18 Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ 21 20 43 -23 18
19 CS Dinamo București 21 19 35 -16 16
20 Tunari 21 19 36 -17 16
21 CSM Satu Mare 21 19 45 -26 14
22 Muscelul Câmpulung Elite 21 10 53 -43 10