Statistics / Football / Romania. Liga II / Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ vs Metalul Buzău

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ vs Metalul Buzău Statistics & Analysis

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ
May 09, 2026 - 08:00
0 1.45
3 1.25
xG Accuracy: 42%
Metalul Buzău Metalul Buzău
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ Metalul Buzău ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 0-2, 1-3 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 17:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3454603

Closing Odds 1.36
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Metalul Buzău win · Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ 0–3 Metalul Buzău
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals, BTTS Yes meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ (1X2) by about 28.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ (1X2) 41.8 13.2 +28.6
Draw (1X2) 25.7 20.7 +4.9
Metalul Buzău (1X2) 32.6 66.0 -33.5
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 58.3 -7.7
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 41.7 +7.7
BTTS Yes 56.2 52.0 +4.2
BTTS No 43.8 48.0 -4.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.8% on Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 13.2%. The difference — about 28.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Marathonbet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ (1X2) 6.8 6.8 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.33 4.33 0.0
Metalul Buzău (1X2) 1.36 1.36 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.58 1.58 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.21 2.21 0.0
BTTS Yes 1.75 1.75 0.0
BTTS No 1.9 1.9 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ; market prices Metalul Buzău instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ 1.45 xG vs Metalul Buzău 1.25 → Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ 41.8%
  • Market: Metalul Buzău ~13.2% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 42.3% · Over 2.5 57.7%); BTTS No (Yes 46.1% · No 53.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga II Liga II — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Corvinul Hunedoara 21 16 5 0 53
2 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 21 13 5 3 44
3 Chindia Targoviste 21 12 3 6 39
4 Bihor Oradea 21 12 3 6 39
5 FC Voluntari 21 11 6 4 39
6 CSA Steaua Bucureşti 21 12 3 6 39
7 ASA Targu Mures 21 11 4 6 37
8 CSM Reşiţa 21 10 3 8 33
9 FC Bacau 21 9 6 6 33
10 Metalul Buzău 21 10 2 9 32
11 Politehnica Iasi 21 9 4 8 31
12 CS Afumati 21 9 3 9 30
13 Concordia 21 8 3 10 27
14 Gloria Bistriţa 21 7 5 9 26
15 Slatina 21 7 5 9 26
16 Dumbrăviţa 21 7 4 10 25
17 Viitorul Şelimbăr 21 5 5 11 20
18 Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ 21 5 3 13 18
19 CS Dinamo București 21 3 7 11 16
20 Tunari 21 3 7 11 16
21 CSM Satu Mare 21 4 2 15 14
22 Muscelul Câmpulung Elite 21 2 4 15 10
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bihor Oradea 21 40 24 +16 39
2 Chindia Targoviste 21 38 20 +18 39
3 Corvinul Hunedoara 21 37 13 +24 53
4 ASA Targu Mures 21 37 22 +15 37
5 CSA Steaua Bucureşti 21 36 27 +9 39
6 CSM Reşiţa 21 35 29 +6 33
7 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 21 34 18 +16 44
8 Metalul Buzău 21 33 26 +7 32
9 FC Voluntari 21 30 16 +14 39
10 CS Afumati 21 30 26 +4 30
11 Concordia 21 29 24 +5 27
12 Gloria Bistriţa 21 29 29 0 26
13 FC Bacau 21 28 26 +2 33
14 Slatina 21 27 28 -1 26
15 Viitorul Şelimbăr 21 27 32 -5 20
16 Politehnica Iasi 21 25 22 +3 31
17 Dumbrăviţa 21 25 33 -8 25
18 Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ 21 20 43 -23 18
19 CS Dinamo București 21 19 35 -16 16
20 Tunari 21 19 36 -17 16
21 CSM Satu Mare 21 19 45 -26 14
22 Muscelul Câmpulung Elite 21 10 53 -43 10