Seoul vs Suwon FMC Statistics & Analysis

Seoul

Jul 10, 2026 - 10:00

0 1.46

3 1.14

xG Accuracy: 40%

Suwon FMC

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Seoul Suwon FMC ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 16:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1473798

Closing Odds 1.46

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Suwon FMC win · Seoul 0–3 Suwon FMC

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Seoul (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Seoul (1X2) by about 22.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Seoul (1X2)	39.9	17.1	+22.8
Draw (1X2)	29.1	21.4	+7.7
Suwon FMC (1X2)	31.0	61.5	-30.5
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	58.3	-10.1
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	41.7	+10.1
BTTS Yes	53.8	54.8	-1.0
BTTS No	46.2	45.2	+1.0

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 39.9% on Seoul (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 17.1%. The difference — about 22.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Marathonbet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Seoul (1X2)	5.25	5.25
Draw (1X2)	4.2	4.2
Suwon FMC (1X2)	1.46	1.46
Over 2.5 goals	1.58	1.58
Under 2.5 goals	2.21	2.21
BTTS Yes	1.66	1.66
BTTS No	2.01	2.01

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Seoul; market prices Suwon FMC instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: Seoul 1.46 xG vs Suwon FMC 1.14 → Seoul 39.9%
Market: Suwon FMC ~17.1% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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WK-League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Suwon FMC	24	18	2	4	56
2	Hwacheon KSPO	24	13	8	3	47
3	Gyeongju	24	9	7	8	34
4	Boeun Sangmu	24	10	3	11	33
5	Gumi Sportstoto	24	9	4	11	31
6	Seoul	24	9	3	12	30
7	Incheon Red Angels	24	6	5	13	23
8	Changnyeong	24	3	6	15	15

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Suwon FMC	24	58	19	+39	56
2	Gyeongju	24	35	29	+6	34
3	Hwacheon KSPO	24	32	11	+21	47
4	Boeun Sangmu	24	25	31	-6	33
5	Gumi Sportstoto	24	24	31	-7	31
6	Seoul	24	22	33	-11	30
7	Changnyeong	24	21	49	-28	15
8	Incheon Red Angels	24	20	34	-14	23