Statistics / Football / Australia. Tasmania Northern Championship / Somerset vs Launceston United U21

Somerset vs Launceston United U21 Statistics & Analysis

Somerset Somerset
Jul 18, 2026 - 04:30
8 1.56
2 1.04
xG Accuracy: 13%
Launceston United U21 Launceston United U21
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (10 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Somerset Somerset ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 8-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1457626

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Somerset win · Somerset 8–2 Launceston United U21
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Tasmania Northern Championship
  • Fixture: Somerset vs Launceston United U21
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-18 04:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 47.8% · Draw 28.5% · Away 23.7%
  • xG (showing): Somerset 1.56 — Launceston United U21 1.04 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Tasmania Northern Championship Tasmania Northern Championship — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Northern Rangers 21 20 0 1 60
2 Devonport U21 21 16 2 3 50
3 Ulverstone U21 20 11 3 6 36
4 Launceston U21 20 9 0 11 27
5 Somerset 20 7 2 11 23
6 Burnie Utd. 21 7 2 12 23
7 Riverside Olympic U21 20 5 0 15 15
8 Launceston United U21 21 2 1 18 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Northern Rangers 21 130 24 +106 60
2 Devonport U21 21 107 27 +80 50
3 Burnie Utd. 21 52 79 -27 23
4 Ulverstone U21 20 49 38 +11 36
5 Somerset 20 40 59 -19 23
6 Launceston U21 20 32 39 -7 27
7 Riverside Olympic U21 20 28 76 -48 15
8 Launceston United U21 21 19 115 -96 7