Statistics / Football / Australia. Tasmania Northern Championship / Devonport U21 vs Riverside Olympic U21

Devonport U21 vs Riverside Olympic U21 Statistics & Analysis

Devonport U21 Devonport U21
Jun 20, 2026 - 06:45
14 1.38
1 1.22
xG Accuracy: 3%
Riverside Olympic U21 Riverside Olympic U21
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (15 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Devonport U21 Devonport U21 ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 14-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 20:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1636384

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Devonport U21 win · Devonport U21 14–1 Riverside Olympic U21
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Tasmania Northern Championship
  • Fixture: Devonport U21 vs Riverside Olympic U21
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-20 06:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
  • xG (showing): Devonport U21 1.38 — Riverside Olympic U21 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Tasmania Northern Championship Tasmania Northern Championship — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Northern Rangers 21 20 0 1 60
2 Devonport U21 21 16 2 3 50
3 Ulverstone U21 20 11 3 6 36
4 Launceston U21 20 9 0 11 27
5 Somerset 20 7 2 11 23
6 Burnie Utd. 21 7 2 12 23
7 Riverside Olympic U21 20 5 0 15 15
8 Launceston United U21 21 2 1 18 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Northern Rangers 21 130 24 +106 60
2 Devonport U21 21 107 27 +80 50
3 Burnie Utd. 21 52 79 -27 23
4 Ulverstone U21 20 49 38 +11 36
5 Somerset 20 40 59 -19 23
6 Launceston U21 20 32 39 -7 27
7 Riverside Olympic U21 20 28 76 -48 15
8 Launceston United U21 21 19 115 -96 7