Statistics / Football / Australia. Tasmania Southern Championship / Clarence Zebras II vs New Town

Clarence Zebras II vs New Town Statistics & Analysis

Clarence Zebras II Clarence Zebras II
Aug 01, 2026 - 04:30
0 1.04
2 1.56
xG Accuracy: 67%
New Town New Town
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 New Town New Town ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 0-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 01:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1782185

Closing Odds 5.5
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result New Town win · Clarence Zebras II 0–2 New Town
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 33.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Clarence Zebras II (1X2) 23.8 26.4 -2.6
Draw (1X2) 25.8 16.3 +9.4
New Town (1X2) 50.5 57.2 -6.8
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 81.4 -33.2
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 18.6 +33.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 18.6%. The difference — about 33.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Clarence Zebras II (1X2) 3.4 3.4 0.0
Draw (1X2) 5.5 5.5 0.0
New Town (1X2) 1.57 1.57 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.14 1.14 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 5.0 5.0 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Tasmania Southern Championship
  • Fixture: Clarence Zebras II vs New Town
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-01 04:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 23.8% · Draw 25.8% · Away 50.5%
  • xG (showing): Clarence Zebras II 1.04 — New Town 1.56 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS No
  • Model: 47.4% · Implied: 16.2% · Probability edge: +31.2 pts · Est. EV: +219.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 52.6% · No 47.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.1%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Tasmania Southern Championship Tasmania Southern Championship — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 South Hobart II 17 13 2 2 41
2 Olympia Warriors 17 10 3 4 33
3 New Town 16 9 5 2 32
4 Taroona 17 9 3 5 30
5 Hobart City 16 7 6 3 27
6 Clarence Zebras II 16 7 1 8 22
7 Glenorchy Knights FC 2 9 2 2 5 8
7 Hobart Utd. 17 4 3 10 15
8 Glenorchy Knights II 17 3 2 12 11
9 University of Tasmania 17 3 1 13 10
10 South East Utd. 6 0 0 6 0
10 South East Utd. 0 0 0 0 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 South Hobart II 17 77 21 +56 41
2 Taroona 17 58 25 +33 30
3 New Town 16 54 17 +37 32
4 Olympia Warriors 17 47 28 +19 33
5 Hobart City 16 41 28 +13 27
6 Clarence Zebras II 16 37 41 -4 22
7 Glenorchy Knights II 17 37 79 -42 11
8 Hobart Utd. 17 36 77 -41 15
9 Glenorchy Knights FC 2 9 30 29 +1 8
10 University of Tasmania 17 30 57 -27 10
11 South East Utd. 6 6 50 -44 0
12 South East Utd. 0 0 0 0 0