Statistics / Football / Australia. Tasmania Southern Championship / Clarence Zebras II vs Taroona

Clarence Zebras II vs Taroona Statistics & Analysis

Clarence Zebras II Clarence Zebras II
Jul 11, 2026 - 06:45
3 1.05
1 1.55
xG Accuracy: 50%
Taroona Taroona
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Taroona Clarence Zebras II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 20:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1761990

Closing Odds 1.4
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Clarence Zebras II win · Clarence Zebras II 3–1 Taroona
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Clarence Zebras II (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 37.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Clarence Zebras II (1X2) 23.8 19.9 +3.9
Draw (1X2) 27.2 16.3 +10.9
Taroona (1X2) 49.0 63.9 -14.8
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 85.5 -37.3
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 14.5 +37.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 14.5%. The difference — about 37.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Clarence Zebras II (1X2) 4.5 4.5 0.0
Draw (1X2) 5.5 5.5 0.0
Taroona (1X2) 1.4 1.4 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.1 1.1 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 6.5 6.5 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Tasmania Southern Championship
  • Fixture: Clarence Zebras II vs Taroona
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-11 06:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 23.8% · Draw 27.2% · Away 49.0%
  • xG (showing): Clarence Zebras II 1.05 — Taroona 1.55 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 14.5% · Probability edge: +37.3 pts · Est. EV: +236.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 52.8% · No 47.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.1%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Tasmania Southern Championship Tasmania Southern Championship — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 South Hobart II 17 13 2 2 41
2 Olympia Warriors 17 10 3 4 33
3 New Town 16 9 5 2 32
4 Taroona 17 9 3 5 30
5 Hobart City 16 7 6 3 27
6 Clarence Zebras II 16 7 1 8 22
7 Glenorchy Knights FC 2 9 2 2 5 8
7 Hobart Utd. 17 4 3 10 15
8 Glenorchy Knights II 17 3 2 12 11
9 University of Tasmania 17 3 1 13 10
10 South East Utd. 6 0 0 6 0
10 South East Utd. 0 0 0 0 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 South Hobart II 17 77 21 +56 41
2 Taroona 17 58 25 +33 30
3 New Town 16 54 17 +37 32
4 Olympia Warriors 17 47 28 +19 33
5 Hobart City 16 41 28 +13 27
6 Clarence Zebras II 16 37 41 -4 22
7 Glenorchy Knights II 17 37 79 -42 11
8 Hobart Utd. 17 36 77 -41 15
9 Glenorchy Knights FC 2 9 30 29 +1 8
10 University of Tasmania 17 30 57 -27 10
11 South East Utd. 6 6 50 -44 0
12 South East Utd. 0 0 0 0 0