Statistics / Football / Australia. Tasmania Southern Championship / Olympia Warriors vs University of Tasmania

Olympia Warriors vs University of Tasmania Statistics & Analysis

Olympia Warriors Olympia Warriors
Jun 26, 2026 - 10:15
4 1.45
2 1.15
xG Accuracy: 39%
University of Tasmania University of Tasmania
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Olympia Warriors Olympia Warriors ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 4-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 21:31 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3076463

Closing Odds 1.28
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Olympia Warriors win · Olympia Warriors 4–2 University of Tasmania
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 3.55 percentage points on Over 2.5 goals between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 38.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Olympia Warriors (1X2) 48.6 69.6 -21.0
Draw (1X2) 26.3 14.2 +12.1
University of Tasmania (1X2) 25.1 16.2 +8.9
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 86.6 -38.4
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 13.4 +38.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 13.4%. The difference — about 38.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Olympia Warriors (1X2) 1.28 1.28 -0.5
Draw (1X2) 6.25 6.25 -0.1
University of Tasmania (1X2) 5.75 5.5 +0.6
Over 2.5 goals 1.12 1.08 +3.5
Under 2.5 goals 5.5 7.0 -3.5

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Tasmania Southern Championship
  • Fixture: Olympia Warriors vs University of Tasmania
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-26 10:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 48.6% · Draw 26.3% · Away 25.1%
  • xG (showing): Olympia Warriors 1.45 — University of Tasmania 1.15 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Tasmania Southern Championship Tasmania Southern Championship — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 South Hobart II 17 13 2 2 41
2 Olympia Warriors 17 10 3 4 33
3 New Town 16 9 5 2 32
4 Taroona 17 9 3 5 30
5 Hobart City 16 7 6 3 27
6 Clarence Zebras II 16 7 1 8 22
7 Glenorchy Knights FC 2 9 2 2 5 8
7 Hobart Utd. 17 4 3 10 15
8 Glenorchy Knights II 17 3 2 12 11
9 University of Tasmania 17 3 1 13 10
10 South East Utd. 6 0 0 6 0
10 South East Utd. 0 0 0 0 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 South Hobart II 17 77 21 +56 41
2 Taroona 17 58 25 +33 30
3 New Town 16 54 17 +37 32
4 Olympia Warriors 17 47 28 +19 33
5 Hobart City 16 41 28 +13 27
6 Clarence Zebras II 16 37 41 -4 22
7 Glenorchy Knights II 17 37 79 -42 11
8 Hobart Utd. 17 36 77 -41 15
9 Glenorchy Knights FC 2 9 30 29 +1 8
10 University of Tasmania 17 30 57 -27 10
11 South East Utd. 6 6 50 -44 0
12 South East Utd. 0 0 0 0 0