Dalian Kewei vs Dalian Yingbo B Statistics & Analysis

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Dalian Kewei

Jul 25, 2026 - 09:30

2 1.32

0 1.28

xG Accuracy: 58%

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Dalian Yingbo B

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Dalian Kewei Dalian Kewei ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1453328

Closing Odds 5.15

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Dalian Kewei win · Dalian Kewei 2–0 Dalian Yingbo B

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Dalian Yingbo B (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 13.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Dalian Kewei (1X2)	41.0	51.7	-10.7
Draw (1X2)	30.5	30.8	-0.3
Dalian Yingbo B (1X2)	28.6	17.6	+11.0
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	34.5	+13.7
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	65.5	-13.7

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 34.5%. The difference — about 13.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Dalian Kewei (1X2)	1.75	1.75
Draw (1X2)	2.94	2.94
Dalian Yingbo B (1X2)	5.15	5.15
Over 2.5 goals	2.68	2.68
Under 2.5 goals	1.41	1.41

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: China League Two
Fixture: Dalian Kewei vs Dalian Yingbo B
Kickoff: 2026-07-25 09:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.0% · Draw 30.5% · Away 28.6%
xG (showing): Dalian Kewei 1.32 — Dalian Yingbo B 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
Model: 54.5% · Implied: 38.6% · Probability edge: +15.9 pts · Est. EV: +33.5%
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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