Rizhao Yuqi vs Dalian Yingbo B Statistics & Analysis

Rizhao Yuqi

Jun 27, 2026 - 11:30

0 1.35

0 1.25

xG Accuracy: 49%

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Dalian Yingbo B

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Rizhao Yuqi Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 22:15 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1650357

Closing Odds 3.42

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Rizhao Yuqi 0–0 Dalian Yingbo B

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Dalian Yingbo B (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 16.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Rizhao Yuqi (1X2)	37.6	37.7	-0.1
Draw (1X2)	29.6	35.9	-6.3
Dalian Yingbo B (1X2)	32.9	26.4	+6.4
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	31.3	+16.9
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	68.7	-16.9

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 31.3%. The difference — about 16.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Rizhao Yuqi (1X2)	2.4	2.4
Draw (1X2)	2.52	2.52
Dalian Yingbo B (1X2)	3.42	3.42
Over 2.5 goals	2.94	2.94
Under 2.5 goals	1.34	1.34

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: League Two
Fixture: Rizhao Yuqi vs Dalian Yingbo B
Kickoff: 2026-06-27 11:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
xG (showing): Rizhao Yuqi 1.35 — Dalian Yingbo B 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 48.2% · Implied: 32.2% · Probability edge: +16.0 pts · Est. EV: +49.4%
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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