Hubei Chufeng Heli vs Shenzhen 2028 Statistics & Analysis

Hubei Chufeng Heli

Jun 14, 2026 - 11:30

1 1.16

2 1.44

xG Accuracy: 82%

Shenzhen 2028

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Shenzhen 2028 Shenzhen 2028 ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 21:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1645567

Closing Odds 2.6

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Shenzhen 2028 win · Hubei Chufeng Heli 1–2 Shenzhen 2028

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Shenzhen 2028 (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Shenzhen 2028 (1X2) by about 7.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Hubei Chufeng Heli (1X2)	28.8	32.9	-4.1
Draw (1X2)	29.3	32.3	-3.0
Shenzhen 2028 (1X2)	41.9	34.8	+7.0
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	41.8	+6.4
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	58.2	-6.4

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.9% on Shenzhen 2028 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 34.8%. The difference — about 7.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Hubei Chufeng Heli (1X2)	2.75	2.75
Draw (1X2)	2.8	2.8
Shenzhen 2028 (1X2)	2.6	2.6
Over 2.5 goals	2.23	2.23
Under 2.5 goals	1.6	1.6

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: League Two
Fixture: Hubei Chufeng Heli vs Shenzhen 2028
Kickoff: 2026-06-14 11:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 28.8% · Draw 29.3% · Away 41.9%
xG (showing): Hubei Chufeng Heli 1.16 — Shenzhen 2028 1.44 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 48.2% · Implied: 41.7% · Probability edge: +6.5 pts · Est. EV: +9.9%
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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