Dayton Dutch Lions W vs Racing Louisville W Statistics & Analysis

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Validation Report

AI match briefing

Model Performance

AI Match Summary

Historical Recommendation

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Last Updated

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USL W League — Standings

Dayton Dutch Lions W

Jun 24, 2026 - 23:00

3 1.04

4 1.56

xG Accuracy: 30%

Racing Louisville W

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Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Racing Louisville W Racing Louisville W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 3-4 ✖ Incorrect

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 07, 2026 · 16:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3195121

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Racing Louisville W win · Dayton Dutch Lions W 3–4 Racing Louisville W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: USL W League
Fixture: Dayton Dutch Lions W vs Racing Louisville W
Kickoff: 2026-06-24 23:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 23.7% · Draw 28.5% · Away 47.8%
xG (showing): Dayton Dutch Lions W 1.04 — Racing Louisville W 1.56 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 52.6% · No 47.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 52.6% · No 47.4%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.1%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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